Theory of Daily Fantasy Sports

AUDIO DFS MASTERCLASS (23 HOURS)

According to a McKinsey report, a whopping 91% of all profit in daily fantasy sports is earned by just 1.3% of users. What are these top 1% of players doing and how are they approaching the game that allows them to take the bulk of the winnings over others? Over you! Find out in this masterclass.

Download the first lesson absolutely free!

LESSON DESCRIPTIONS

Lesson 1: Introduction (1:30:00)

• DFS: Perception vs. Reality
• The Game of Decision-Making
• Core Skills: Logic, Math & Economics
• The Conceptual Learning Process
• Player Demographic Types

Lesson 2: Game Objectives (2:00:00)

• The Game Ecosystem of DFS
• The Skill Gap: Balancing Luck vs. Skill
• The Effect of Rake
• Absolute vs. Relative Value
• Zero-Sum Game Mechanics
• Simultanteous & Sequential Scenarios
• The Game of Imperfect Information
• Variable Probability Decisions

Lesson 3: Player Selection (3:00:00)

• Forecasting Player Performance
• The Law of Large Numbers
• The Predictive Power of Variables
• Understanding Ranges of Outcomes
• The Three Statistical M's
• Standard Deviations & Variance
• Game Outcomes vs. Player Outcomes
• Probability-Based Fantasy Distribution
• Common Statistical Biases

Lesson 4: Expected Value (2:00:00)

• The Coin Flip Example
• The Long Run: Profitiable Decisions
• Inefficiences: Payout vs. Probability
• Determining Salary Adjusted Values
• The Effect of Payout Curves on EV
• Embracing or Overcoming Variance

Lesson 5: Leverage (2:00:00)

• The Importance of Relative Value
• Finding Market Inefficiences In The Field
• Increasing Variance & Maintaining EV
• Determining Appropriate Leverage
• Gaining Leverage w/ Player Selection
• Gaining Leverage w/ Construction

Lesson 6: Correlation (1:30:00)

• The Importance of Correlation
• Positive vs. Negative Correlation
• Measuring The Correlation of Events

Lesson 7: Lineup Construction (2:30:00)

• Lineups: The Sum of All Players
• Aggregating Variable Player Odds
• The Effect of Field Size & Payout Curve
• Low Variance vs. High Variance Builds
• Determining Lineup Equity In A Contest
• Positional Scarcity & Salary Distribution
• The Effect of Duplication

Lesson 8: Risk Management (2:30:00)

• Multi-Entry Play: An Investment Portfolio
• The Effect of Multiple Entries on EV
• Lineup Correlation & Diversification
• Hedging & Variance Control
• Bankroll Management Dynamics
• The Kelly Criterion & Risk of Ruin
• Calculating Win Rates & ROI
• Objectively Analyzing Results
• Avoiding Survivorship Bias

Lesson 9: Exploits (2:00:00)

• The Financial Value of New Information
• Taking Advantage of Optionality
• The Three Levels of Thinking
• Game Theory Optimal (GTO) Play
• Probabilistic Opponent Actions
• The Nash Equilibrium

Lesson 10: Psychology (2:00:00)

• Avoiding Confirmation Bias
• The Dunning-Kruger Effect
• Gambler's Fallacy & The Hot-Hand
• Sunk Cost Fallacy & Loss Aversion
• Recency Bias & Availability Heuristics
• Taking Advantage of Groupthink
• Avoiding Distinction Bias
• The Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon
• Embracing Ambiguity

Lesson 11: Miscellaneous (1:30:00)

• Multi-Entry Myths

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Jordan Cooper is a former professional poker player who has played DFS full-time since 2015. A consistently high ranked player on DraftKings utilizing his expertise in game theory, he has multiple 5-6 figure GPP first-place finishes in NFL, NBA, MLB and Soccer. A contributor on RotoGrinders since 2019 and known for having a conservative bankroll management, he is often considered as one of the most profitable “nits” in the industry.

James McCool has received multiple awards for his writing and content across multiple sites and is one of the best in the DFS industry in understanding the essentials of developing projections. Deeply invested in game theory, he often provides a contrarian look at the way players find success, and the majority of his writing and research is in finding ways to leverage the field based on biases and assumptions.