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# Theory of Daily Fantasy Sports

#### AUDIO DFS MASTERCLASS (23 HOURS)

According to a McKinsey report, a whopping 91% of all profit in daily fantasy sports is earned by just 1.3% of users. What are these top 1% of players doing and how are they approaching the game that allows them to take the bulk of the winnings over others? Over you! Find out in this masterclass.

#### LESSON DESCRIPTIONS

Lesson 1: Introduction (1:30:00)
• DFS: Perception vs. Reality
• The Game of Decision-Making
• Core Skills: Logic, Math & Economics
• The Conceptual Learning Process
• Player Demographic Types
Lesson 2: Game Objectives (2:00:00)
• The Game Ecosystem of DFS
• The Skill Gap: Balancing Luck vs. Skill
• The Effect of Rake
• Absolute vs. Relative Value
• Zero-Sum Game Mechanics
• Simultanteous & Sequential Scenarios
• The Game of Imperfect Information
• Variable Probability Decisions
Lesson 3: Player Selection (3:00:00)
• Forecasting Player Performance
• The Law of Large Numbers
• The Predictive Power of Variables
• Understanding Ranges of Outcomes
• The Three Statistical M's
• Standard Deviations & Variance
• Game Outcomes vs. Player Outcomes
• Probability-Based Fantasy Distribution
• Common Statistical Biases
Lesson 4: Expected Value (2:00:00)
• The Coin Flip Example
• The Long Run: Profitiable Decisions
• Inefficiences: Payout vs. Probability
• The Effect of Payout Curves on EV
• Embracing or Overcoming Variance
Lesson 5: Leverage (2:00:00)
• The Importance of Relative Value
• Finding Market Inefficiences In The Field
• Increasing Variance & Maintaining EV
• Determining Appropriate Leverage
• Gaining Leverage w/ Player Selection
• Gaining Leverage w/ Construction
Lesson 6: Correlation (1:30:00)
• The Importance of Correlation
• Positive vs. Negative Correlation
• Measuring The Correlation of Events
Lesson 7: Lineup Construction (2:30:00)
• Lineups: The Sum of All Players
• Aggregating Variable Player Odds
• The Effect of Field Size & Payout Curve
• Low Variance vs. High Variance Builds
• Determining Lineup Equity In A Contest
• Positional Scarcity & Salary Distribution
• The Effect of Duplication
Lesson 8: Risk Management (2:30:00)
• Multi-Entry Play: An Investment Portfolio
• The Effect of Multiple Entries on EV
• Lineup Correlation & Diversification
• Hedging & Variance Control
• Bankroll Management Dynamics
• The Kelly Criterion & Risk of Ruin
• Calculating Win Rates & ROI
• Objectively Analyzing Results
• Avoiding Survivorship Bias
Lesson 9: Exploits (2:00:00)
• The Financial Value of New Information
• The Three Levels of Thinking
• Game Theory Optimal (GTO) Play
• Probabilistic Opponent Actions
• The Nash Equilibrium
Lesson 10: Psychology (2:00:00)
• Avoiding Confirmation Bias
• The Dunning-Kruger Effect
• Gambler's Fallacy & The Hot-Hand
• Sunk Cost Fallacy & Loss Aversion
• Recency Bias & Availability Heuristics
• Avoiding Distinction Bias
• Embracing Ambiguity
Lesson 11: Miscellaneous (1:30:00)
• Multi-Entry Myths