A surface low over Louisiana, and a cool front extending south in the Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front developing over Northern Florida on Saturday. The warm front will eventually move into Georgia and the surface low will track toward Central Georgia by Saturday morning. This will bring a risk of hail, wind, and tornadoes to much of Florida. As of this evening, CH4 release from lakes and rivers across central and northern Florida ranged from less than 1 um2 to 1800 um2. Rivers and lakes across Southern Florida had less than 1 um2 release of CH4. Tree stem CH4 release across Florida near the coast was running less than 1 um2 to 150 um2. NO3 field across northern and central Florida was running is running from 0004 to 0101. The 0101 NO3 field is near where 150 um2 CH4 emissions are being indicated. This could end up developing an EF-1 to EF-3 tornado on Saturday into Sunday morning near the Jacksonville Florida region. Another region of concern is toward Tallahassee Florida where NO3 is running 0101 and Ch4 release from rivers and lakes are tallying 1600 um2. Deciduous tree stem release in Florida is running from 1 um2 to 25 um2. Other areas that might be a problem in Florida are the NO3 field of 0071 near Mayo Florida and a CH4 release of 1765 um2. However, this appears to be an offset region which could indicate no severe weather or tornadoes. Hail and wind could be the primary threat there.
As of current readings isolated tornado potential is possible across Florida with the greatest threat near Jacksonville. Not to say all of central northern Florida does not have a risk for tornadoes but feel the best risk is near Jacksonville where tree stem CH4 and NO3 field of 0101 is indicated. Another region of concern is toward Tallahassee Florida where NO3 is running 0101 and Ch4 release from rivers and lakes are tallying 1600 um2. This indicates EF-1 to EF-3 tornadoes would be possible if this pans out. Hail and wind will be the rule mostly across northern and central Florida because of offsets but there is a real risk for isolated EF-1 tornadoes in the mix as well.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams