A surface low, warm front, and cool front will move across Texas Today. This will bring a risk of hail, wind, and tornadoes. As of this morning, CH4 release from lakes and rivers near Fort Worth ranged from less than 1 um2. Across West Texas, CH4 release from rivers was less than 1 um2 to 1050 um2. Tree stem CH4 release across South Texas near the coast was running less than 1 um2 to 150 um2. Tree stem CH4 release in Fort Worth at one location was running 24 um2 (Not significant) from one specific location. Tree stem release at a specific location in Dallas County Texas was running less than 5.5 um2 (not significant). NO3 field across Dallas and Fort Worth is running from 0004 to 0071. It appears an offset may be developing in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex would indicate hail and wind the main factors if that can even develop. Red River this morning at the Oklahoma border is running CH4 less than 1 um2 and NO3 fields along the Red River are running 0004 to 0071. This indicates no tornadoes are expected along the Red River at this time. Central and South Texas NO3 fields are running 0040 to 0091. CH4 in Central Texas from river release is running 550 um2. Deciduous tree stem release in central and south Texas is running from 1 um2 to 9 um2.
As of current readings isolated tornado potential is possible across North Texas near the Red River north of Dallas and Tarrant Counties on a conditional threat. If an offset occurs in this region then no tornadoes will be possible. South of this region the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex is even more complicated. Dallas County into Tarrant County might have the best risk of severe weather this afternoon for North Texas once again on a conditional threat. If CH4 levels continue to retreat as the typical trend through afternoon hours with an advancing front then the risk of tornadoes may also retreat depending on how much mols are entering the atmosphere through the afternoon. If enough CH4 can interact with the advancing storm system this afternoon from the morning's release then a tornado threat would ensue. Central and South Texas have the best setup today for tornadoes in my opinion as the CH4 level will be there in both tree stem and river CH4 release. However, the atmospheric setup in those areas seems to be somewhat less helpful. It is possible that isolated tornadoes will be the mainstay for this afternoon and evening if the atmosphere does not line up with CH4 and NO3 constants. However, very dangerous large hail and damaging winds are likely across much of central, northeast, eastern, and southern Texas. This is mostly a risk of EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes. However, if the atmosphere across South Texas becomes more conducive for tornadoes then it is possible an isolated EF-3 tornado could develop near Austin Texas probably near Temple.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams