A dangerous storm system will move across the Plains, Midwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Positive polarity will be widespread in H2O and nonpolar polarity NO3 associated with H2O within rainfall will increase over time. Release of CH4 from trees and denitrification will increase the threat of severe storms. Strong denitrification patterns are expected across the region and this will owe to more of a QLCS development with tornadoes developing within the lines. Also, supercells may form ahead of the line and produce tornadoes with EF-0 to EF-4 tornadoes possible. As of this morning, water returns of 26, 29, and 22 indicate violent tornadoes are likely. This is much stronger than the outbreak on March 31, 2023, in which Little Rock was hit with an EF-3 that had water returns of 21, 21, and 19. A high risk of violent tornadoes is likely. Any storm that can cross a river, pond, or waterway that emits CH4 gases to any extent and becomes severe will have the potential to produce violent tornadoes. This is within the moderate and ground inversion cap regions associated with mesoscale storm development.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist, Wayne Adams