A mix of polarity exists from Southeast Oklahoma into North Texas. Areas of wind and hail can be indicated on the WALT 2 model for Thursday. An increase in tightness of NO3 water molecules within updraft associated with supercell development is expected in the latest update near Sulphur Springs Texas. Also, more confidence currently exists within this region of moderate CH4 release. The model indicates that an EF-0 to EF-2 tornado will be possible near Sulphur Springs Texas Thursday afternoon or evening. This could change and updates will be delivered as more information comes into play.
For the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex a mix of non-polar and polar is expected. This tends to lead toward hail and wind expectations. There is an isolated area of slim tornado potential near Oak Grove Texas as polarity seems to increase for a bit in that region from possible CH4 and NO3 elevated activities. Not confident in this prognostication and expect only wind and hail potential within that area. However, it is something to keep in mind for later updates of the model.
In Southeast Oklahoma Hail and the wind seems to be the main threat as the main polarity near the Red River has decreased this morning except for an isolated area near Idabel. The data coming from CH4 release and NO3 tightening with updraft potential near Paris Texas indicates more hail and wind features in that region. However, an area of concern this morning in isolated triple covalent bond release near Idabel Oklahoma does pose a slim threat of tornado potential of EF-0 to EF-2 from Idabel to the Dequeen Arkansas region.
Eastern Texas is mostly hail and wind potential because of non-polar and polar mixed intensities within the thunderstorm makeup. An area of elevated CH4 release and NO3 tightening within updraft potential near Georgetown Texas indicates a more elevated EF-0 to EF-2 potential in those areas. Isolated areas of slim potential for EF-1 tornadoes exist across portions of Eastern Texas but in this discussion, we only are speaking of moderate CH4 release & NO3 tightening within the supercell updraft producing polar positive activity.
Forecaster
Climate Scientist: Wayne Adams