A dryline setup could develop on March 3, 2024, across Eastern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in central Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Models tend to diminish thunderstorm potential by the time activity reaches the far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas border. This is because of a CCN inversion over Northern Le Flore County Oklahoma. To the north in Sequoyah County Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas CCN forecasts indicate dominant storm flow of an outflow system but some QLCS activity could be possible in Benton County Arkansas before the system weakens. Hail and high winds would be the likely storm profile if models hold up but QLCS is still possible in the northwest corner of Arkansas. CCN in water droplet evaporation within storm profile indicates that if a QLCS system can form the evaporation process of water droplets has the potential to offset the rimming process and strengthen wind shear. This system will be updated daily.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams