February 27, 2024
Arkansas River Valley of far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas:
A dryline setup could develop on March 4, 2024, across Central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in central Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Current model progression indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by 10 P.M. Hail, lightning and wind would be the primary threats as storms move into the region. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Poteau will have low heat transfer of CCN and this is because of a CCN inversion expected to develop in the region. Therefore any severe storm potential would be in the way of outflow winds progressing toward Fort Smith from Sallisaw if models hold up. CCN in water droplet evaporation within storm profile indicates evaporation will be low and therefore the rimming process should be adequate within the storm to allow outflow dominant features instead of QLCS modes. Fort Smith model kinetics indicate 5.696683 × 10-7 and CCN of 34 to 73 are in line with hail and wind modes. The model indicates Poteau Oklahoma will have a CCN of 73 to 91 producing an inversion that may keep severe storms at bay in this region.
Northwest Arkansas Boston Mountain Region:
A dryline setup could develop on March 4, 2024, across Central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in central Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Current model progression indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by 10 P.M. Hail, lightning, QLCS tornado, and wind would be the primary threats as storms move into the region. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Fayetteville Arkansas will have a kinetic feature of 5.3710225 × 10-7 and CCN of 43 to 54. If thunderstorms can hold together and make it into the northwest corner of Arkansas some QLCS and outflow storms will be possible.
Southwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma Ouachita Mountain Region:
A dryline setup could develop on March 4, 2024, across Central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in central Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Current model progression indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by 10 P.M. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Mena Arkansas will have a kinetic feature 5.5340355 × 10-7 and a CCN of 66 to 92. The evaporation process of a CCN inversion could be too strong for storms to hold together as they move into the Ouachita Mountain range.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams