Arkansas River Valley of far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas:

A dryline setup across Eastern Oklahoma could develop on March 4, 2024. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Eastern Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Current model progression indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by afternoon. Hail, lightning, and wind would be the primary threats as storms move into the region. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Poteau will have low heat transfer of CCN and this is because of a CCN inversion expected to develop in the region. Therefore any severe storm potential would be in the way of outflow winds progressing across the region. CCN in water droplet evaporation within storm profile indicates evaporation will be low and therefore the rimming process should be adequate within the storm to allow outflow dominant features instead of QLCS modes. Fort Smith model kinetics indicate 6.1034845 × 10-7 and CCN of 0 to 23 align with small hail and gusty winds. The model indicates Poteau Oklahoma will have a CCN of 0 to 23 as well small hail and gusty winds will be the main threat.

Northwest Arkansas Boston Mountain Region:

A dryline setup across Eastern Oklahoma could develop on March 4, 2024. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Eastern Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Current model progression indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by afternoon. Hail, lightning, and wind would be the primary threats as storms move into the region. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Fayetteville Arkansas will have a kinetic feature of 5.5340355 × 10-7 and CCN of 17 to 54. Storms with large hail, damaging winds, and dangerous lightning will be possible.

Southwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma Ouachita Mountain Region:

A dryline setup across Eastern Oklahoma could develop on March 4, 2024. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Eastern Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Current model progression indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by afternoon. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Mena Arkansas will have a kinetic feature of 5.7781895 × 10-7 and a CCN of 3 to 21. Mena Arkansas will have low heat transfer of CCN. Therefore any severe storm potential would be in the way of outflow winds progressing across the region. CCN in water droplet evaporation within storm profile indicates evaporation will be low and therefore the rimming process should be adequate within the storm to allow outflow dominant features instead of QLCS modes. Small hail and gusty winds will be the main threat.

Forecaster:

Climate Scientist Wayne Adams