Arkansas River Valley of far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas:

A dryline setup across Central Oklahoma could develop on March 8, 2024. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Central Oklahoma and move in an eastward to northeastward progression. Current model prognostication indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by evening. Hail, lightning, and wind would be the primary threats as storms move into the region. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Poteau will have a kinetic of 5.0457275 × 10-7 and CCN of 20 to 32 which aligns with large hail and gusty winds possible. Any severe storm potential would be in the way of outflow winds progressing across Le Flore County Oklahoma. CCN in water droplet evaporation within storm profile indicates evaporation will be low and therefore the rimming process should be adequate within the storm to allow outflow dominant features instead of QLCS modes. Fort Smith model kinetics indicate 4.720067 × 10-7 and CCN of 0 to 30 which is weaker than Poteau Oklahoma and aligns with small hail and gusty winds. 

Northwest Arkansas Boston Mountain Region:

A dryline setup across Central Oklahoma could develop on March 8, 2024. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Central Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Current model prognostication indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by evening. Hail, lightning, and wind would be the primary threats as storms move into the region. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Fayetteville Arkansas will have a model kinetics of 4.720067 × 10-7 and CCN of 5 to 32 and aligns with small hail and gusty winds. 

Southwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma Ouachita Mountain Region:

A dryline setup across Central Oklahoma could develop on March 8, 2024. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Central Oklahoma and move in an eastward progression. Current model progression indicates storms could reach the Oklahoma and Arkansas border region by evening. Micro-scale forecasting indicates that Mena Arkansas will have a kinetic feature of 4.964221 × 10-7 and a CCN of 6 to 20. Mena Arkansas will have low heat transfer of CCN. Therefore any severe storm potential would be in the way of outflow winds progressing across the region. CCN in water droplet evaporation within storm profile indicates evaporation will be low and therefore the rimming process should be adequate within the storm to allow outflow dominant features instead of QLCS modes. Small hail and gusty winds will be the main threat.

Forecaster:

Climate Scientist Wayne Adams