National Climate Change Warning Center:
Issued at 8:00 A.M. 02/26/2024
A strong cold front will move across Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. However, the forecast profile of pm in Northwest Arkansas provides a look into what could develop given the kinetics 3.05181535 × 10-7 and CCN (56 - 94) in this synoptic situation. As the cold front advances into Benton County in Northwest Arkansas thunderstorms will likely have formed in Southwest Missouri by 11:00 P.M. Tuesday. These storms will slowly work their way into Northwest Arkansas and if the current CCN inversion that has developed this morning continues storms will likely not become severe in Benton County Arkansas. However, Fayetteville could be more conducive for rapid heat transfer from water droplet evaporation and heat transfer from reduced rimming. This could lead to isolated hail and wind threats in what would be a low-sheared environment in and near Fayetteville Arkansas. GHG and CCN will be on the order of 3.1332122 × 10-7. This could lead to weak CCN reactions within the ongoing storm mode. Hail and winds will be the primary threats across the Northwest Arkansas.
In Eastern Oklahoma and far West-Central Arkansas the setup is a lot different. The cold front on Tuesday evening will begin to affect the region but overall strong CCN inversions of (89 to 126) will counter the 3.05181535 × 10-7 kinetic layout in some areas. This could cause storms to not develop at all or not become severe. The Poteau CCN forecast was below 25 in this forecast profile. With weak to strong CCN values and low kinetic rates, severe storms may find it hard to develop in this environment. The exception to this forecast will be Mena Arkansas where kinetic trends and pm profiles appear to indicate wind and hail will be possible.
In central Arkansas, toward Russellville Arkansas, the environment has shown to become weaker for severe storms on Wednesday morning compared to yesterday's run of the model. As the cold front moves into this region it will run into low kinetic rates of 3.05181535 × 10-7 but the pm (45 to 55) may be enough to support an isolated hail and wind threat.
Last update on this system.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams