National Climate Change Warning Center:
Issued at 6:20 P.M. 02/25/2024
A strong cold front will move across Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. However, the forecast profile of pm in Northwest Arkansas provides a look into what could develop given the kinetics 3.05181535 × 10-7 and CCN (42 - 56) in this synoptic situation. As the cold front advances into Benton County in Northwest Arkansas thunderstorms will likely have formed in Southwest Missouri by 11:00 P.M. Tuesday. These storms will slowly work their way into the Northwest Arkansas bringing a wind and hail threat to Benton County Arkansas. GHG, CO2, and pm will be on the order of 3.2145725 × 10-7. This will lead to weak CCN reactions within the ongoing storm mode. Hail and winds will be the primary threats across the region.
In Eastern Oklahoma and far West-Central Arkansas the setup is a lot different. The cold front on Tuesday evening will begin to affect the region but overall strong CCN inversions of (89 to 150) will counter the 3.2145725 × 10-7 kinetic layout in some areas. This could cause storms to not develop at all or not become severe. The Poteau CCN forecast was below 25 in this forecast profile. With weak to strong CCN values and low kinetic rates, severe storms may find it hard to develop in this environment. The exception to this forecast will be Mena Arkansas where kinetic trends and pm profiles appear to indicate wind and hail will be possible.
In central Arkansas, toward Russellville Arkansas, the environment may be a little more conducive for severe storms early Wednesday morning as the cold front moves into this region. Even then the cold front will run into low kinetic rates of 3.1332122 × 10-7 but the pm (51 to 56) may be enough to support weak updrafts and CCN water droplet evaporation to sustain some weak rotation. The most likely threats in this region would be wind, hail, and slim QLCS tornado potential.
The next update is tomorrow at 8:00 A.M.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams