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Severe Weather Possible April 12 - 15 2023

A strong storm system will affect the Southern Plains, south-central states, and Northern Plains April 12 - 15 2023. Hail, wind, and tornadoes will all be possible with this system. Non-polar CH4 release is expected from tree stems, and shallow water systems such as ponds, creeks, rivers, and lakes. NO3 levels are expected to rise from CAPE buildup and polar positive lightning strikes to develop a severe weather threat. NO3 will tighten with soluble H20 to create a moderate atmosphere for tornado development. The most likely area for severe storms will be Colorado (12th - 13th), Kansas (12th - 14th) (, Arkansas (15th), Missouri (15th), Nebraska (12th - 14th), South Dakota (12th - 13th), North Dakota (12th - 14th), Iowa (14th - 15th), Texas (12th - 15th), Oklahoma (12th - 15th), and Minnesota (14th- 15th) where EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes are possible. This will be a dryline setup across the Western Plains States, in the beginning, producing afternoon heating-associated storms. As the storms end in the evening the dryline will retreat and prepare for the next day's storms. Finally, the storm system will eject east by April 15, 2023, as a weaker system by that time begins to affect Arkansas with mostly hail, isolated tornadoes, and wind threats. More information will be presented this evening once measurements have been taken.