Friday morning low pressure will be located in Texas with a warm front moving north across the state. A cold front will swing across the state as the day progresses. Severe t-storms are possible across Texas with this front in the afternoon hours. The best chance for severe as of this discussion post appears to be south of Dallas to South Texas. This is because CH4 levels in North Texas are forecast to be 1 um2 or less than 1um2. However, CH4 gas mixes with the boundary layer and becomes slightly soluble in water vapor. This is what can be expected with the storm system as it passes West Texas and begins its formation in Central and Eastern Texas. CH4 levels in West Texas are expected to be 1400 um2 to 1550 um2. Tree stem CH4 levels are forecast to be 2 um2 to 10 um2. NO3 fields are forecast to be 0004 to 0071 across Texas. This will result in hail, wind, and isolated EF-0 to EF-1 possible tornado formation.
The percentage chance of EF-0 to EF-1 tornadoes in Texas Friday will be 4% to 10%.