A surface low is expected to be over Kansas on May 5, 2023. Thunderstorms will develop off a dryline/cool front that will extend south into Texas. Small stem angiosperms along the Canadian River (from near McAlester to Oklahoma City) will give off over 3000 um2. NO3 in these regions will maximize at 0081. Along the Red River small stem angiosperms will give off over 3000 um2 and NO3 fields are expected to maximize at 0071. This could be an offset along the Red River meaning only hail and wind would be possible if that develops because less than 1 um2 is expected from actual CH4 river release. However, mixing through the dryline and cool front boundary from the Canadian River CH4 release at 900 um2 indicates tornadoes could be possible from EF-0 to EF-2 strength near the Canadian River in Oklahoma between the dryline/cool front and warm front interchange. This would be between McAlester and Oklahoma City Oklahoma. Further south along the dryline in Texas, thunderstorms are possible with the best chance of tornado formation being forecast to be west of Austin where river CH4 release is forecast to be 525 um2. Also, surface cool front and low in Southwest Texas could merge with dryline and if this occurs mixing from CH4 release in rivers across West Texas would be forecast between 550 um2 and 700 um2. Small stem angiosperms west of Austin along the rivers are expected to release over 3000 um2 as well. NO3 is expected to rage from 0061 to 0071 in isolated areas across central and south Texas. Isolated EF-0 to EF-1 tornado would be possible. The main problem with the dryline setup in south and central Texas is that offset could occur because of the angiosperm release being so high. Another condition to the whole forecast is the strength of the ground inversion cap running from .08 to .20 across portions of Oklahoma and Texas. That is why currently the area between Oklahoma City and McAlester could have the best risk of any tornado activity because the ground is uncapped in those regions.
A new update will be sent out on Monday concerning this potential severe weather situation.
Forecaster
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams