A mix of polarity exists from Southeast Oklahoma into North Texas. Areas of wind and hail can be indicated on the WALT 2 model for Thursday. An increase in tightness of NO3 water molecules within updraft associated with supercell development is expected in the latest update near Sulphur Springs, Idabel Oklahoma, and Mount Vernon Texas. Also, more confidence currently exists within this region of moderate CH4 release. The model indicates that an EF-0 to EF-2 tornado will be possible near Sulphur Springs Texas, Texarkana Arkansas, and Mount Vernon Texas Thursday afternoon or evening. This could change and updates will be delivered as more information comes into play.
For the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex a mix of non-polar and polar mixing is expected and from this model through thunderstorm development. This should hamper tornado formation with Thursday's system. This tends to lead toward hail and wind expectations.
In Southeast Oklahoma Hail and the wind seems to be the main threat as the main polarity near the Red River has decreased this evening. The data coming from CH4 release and NO3 tightening with updraft potential near Paris Texas indicates more hail and wind features in that region. However, an area of concern this evening in isolated triple covalent bond release near Idabel Oklahoma does pose a slim threat of tornado potential of EF-0 to EF-2 around Idabel Oklahoma.
Eastern Texas is mostly hail and wind potential because of non-polar and polar mixed intensities within the thunderstorm makeup. An area of elevated CH4 release and NO3 tightening within updraft potential near Waco Texas indicates a more elevated EF-0 to EF-2 potential in those areas. Isolated areas of slim potential for EF-1 tornadoes exist across portions of Eastern Texas but in this discussion, we only are speaking of moderate CH4 release & NO3 tightening within the supercell updraft producing polar positive activity.