A mix of polarity exists from Southeast Oklahoma into North Texas. Areas of wind and hail can be indicated on the WALT 2 model for Thursday with some isolated EF-1 tornado potential. An increase in tightness of NO3 water molecules within updraft associated with supercell development is expected in the latest update near Sulphur Springs, Idabel Oklahoma, Texarkana Arkansas, Haslet Texas, and Mount Vernon Texas. Also, more confidence currently exists within this region of moderate CH4 release. The model indicates that an EF-0 to EF-2 tornado will be possible near Idabel Oklahoma, McKinney Texas, Sulphur Springs Texas, and Mount Vernon Texas regions Thursday afternoon or evening.
For the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex mostly a non-polar and polar mixing is expected from this model through thunderstorm development. This should hamper tornado formation with Thursday's system across much of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This should hamper tornado formation with Thursday's system. This tends to lead toward hail and wind expectations. Although on the latest run, this morning a slight tornado threat has developed near Haslet EF-1 potential, where polarity has developed, is a possibility.
Across Western Arkansas, a non-polar and polar mixing is expected through thunderstorm development. This should hamper tornado formation with Thursday's system across much of the region. Wind and hail will be the main threat across Western Arkansas. There are some slight returns of polar potential associated with NO3 updraft tightening and CH4 release in the Ouachita Mountain regions.
In Southeast Oklahoma Hail and the wind seems to be the overall threat as the main polarity continues to be a non-polar and polar mix. Near the Red River polarity has increased this morning around Idabel. A slight area of polarity this morning has developed north into the Poteau Oklahoma and Fort Smith Arkansas region. However, any storm that forms in that region would have a limited time to produce a brief tornado. The data coming from CH4 release and NO3 tightening with updraft potential near Paris Texas indicates more hail and wind features in that region. However, an area of concern this morning in an isolated triple covalent bond release near Poteau Oklahoma, and Fort Smith Arkansas does pose a slight threat of a brief EF-1 tornado. However, this morning's atmospheric conditions seem to be a little off for tornado potential. More isolated areas of EF-1 potential exist across Southeast Oklahoma but in this discussion, we only are speaking of moderate CH4 release & NO3 tightening within the supercell updraft producing polar positive activity.
Eastern Texas is mostly hail and wind potential because of non-polar and polar mixed intensities within the thunderstorm makeup. An area of elevated CH4 release and NO3 tightening within updraft potential near Cameron Texas indicates a more elevated EF-0 to EF-2 potential in those areas if supercells can be realized where positive polarity exists. Isolated areas of slim potential for EF-1 tornadoes exist across portions of Eastern Texas but in this discussion, we only are speaking of moderate CH4 release & NO3 tightening within the supercell updraft producing polar positive activity.
Forecaster
Climate Scientist: Wayne Adams