A strong low will move across Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska April 18 - 19, 2023 swinging a cool front/dry line across the central and southern plains. Hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes will all be slightly possible with this system. Slight Non-polar CH4 release is expected from tree stems, and shallow water systems such as creeks, rivers, and lakes. Slight NO3 levels are expected from CAPE buildup and polar positive lightning strikes to develop a severe weather threat. NO3 will be slow to slightly tighten with soluble H20 to create a slight atmosphere for ground tornado development. Surface measurements are running .26, .25, .21, .20, and .19 which indicates a slight chance of tornadoes. A new parameter of hail and wind threshold has been developed which indicates a hail and wind surface measurement of .23. This indicates hail and wind will be a better chance than tornadoes with this system. Measurements are still below the.31 threshold of dangerous tornado potential. EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes could play out as of the latest measurements in an isolated fashion, but the risk is slight along the dry line with afternoon heating. Areas of concern for potential EF-1 to EF-2 tornadoes (slight chance) would be near Salina Kansas and Pratt Kansas today. Making a wish in one hand and spitting in the other could be the scenario on that potential today. The main reason for not increasing the severe threats along the dry line is that current measurements do not show they can overcome the ground inversion cap which is indicating parameters to be very strong at positive .01 in portions of Kansas to .12 in Texas above the normal range.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams