A warm front and surface low over Texas Wednesday will initiate thunderstorms and some may be severe. CH4 on the run of 700 um2 from shallow water river release near Austin Texas. However, this setup will deal with deciduous tree stem release of CH4 rather than Alnus CH4 stem release of 140 um2 which was responsible for the tornado development on Tuesday in Eastern Colorado. With this in mind, CH4 deciduous tree release is expected to be 8 um2, and NO3 of 0051 to 0081 is expected at this time. Also, CH4 release from lakes in Tarrant County Texas this morning is running 300 um2. This will bring the risk of hail, wind, and isolated to scattered EF-0 to EF-2 tornado potential. Dallas and Fort Worth NO3 is running 0071. East of Dallas County NO3 is running from 0051 to 0081. Houston region has shown some CH4 release this morning of 330 um2 from rivers. However, NO3 in the Houston area is running from 0051 to 0081. A very curious river CH4 release was noted near the surface low in West Texas this morning at 1625 um2. This could help destabilize the atmosphere for a more elevated risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening across Texas as supercell storms begin to develop. Southern Oklahoma is running in NO3 from 0051 to 0081 and CH4 39 um2 along the Red River. This could run either way but most likely will be a hail and wind event. If the warm front can move into Oklahoma then this could become more serious. The main problem with the Southern Oklahoma forecast is there are high probabilities for an offset to occur. If an offset does not occur and the warm front can move north of the Red River, then balance occurs, and a more favorable situation could develop for tornadoes near Lebanon Oklahoma, and Maxey Texas.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams