A 997 mb low will move from Kansas to Wisconsin on April 20 - 21, 2023 swinging a cool front/dry line across the Southern Plains, Mississippi River Valley, and Eastern Arkansas River Valley. Better chance of hail and wind with this system. Slight Non-polar CH4 release is expected from tree stems, and shallow water systems such as creeks, rivers, and lakes. Slight NO3 levels are expected from CAPE buildup and polar positive lightning strikes to develop a severe weather threat. NO3 of 0051 to 0076 will weakly tighten with soluble H20 to create a low atmosphere for ground tornado development. Measurements of new information taken this morning indicate the slight potential for hail, wind, and low risk isolated tornadoes April 20-21, 2023. Surface measurements are running .30, .29, .22, .21, and .20 which indicates a low chance of tornadoes but this could change by tonight or tomorrow. A new parameter of hail and wind threshold has been developed which indicates a hail and wind surface measurement of .26. This indicates hail and wind will be a better bet with severe storms on the next system. Measurements are still below the .33 threshold of dangerous tornado potential. Basically, EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes could play out as of the latest measurements in an isolated fashion but the risk is low. Right now the best chance of EF-1 to EF-2 tornadoes would be near Stuttgart Arkansas and Georgetown Texas at a low 10% risk.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams