A 997 mb low will move from Kansas to Wisconsin on April 20 - 21, 2023 swinging a cool front/dry line across the Southern Plains, Mississippi River Valley, and Eastern Arkansas River Valley. Better chance of hail and wind with this system. Isolated tornadoes (slight chance) will be possible with this system. The best chance to see an EF-1 to EF-2 tornado would be near Clayton Illinois, Morganfield Illinois, and Southaven Mississippi as of the latest information but not confident since the measurements have not cleared .30. Making a wish in one hand and spitting in the other could be the scenario on that potential if we do not see the major push of dry air as has been the case in the early tornado season. Slight Non-polar CH4 release is expected from tree stems, and shallow water systems such as creeks, rivers, and lakes. Slight NO3 levels are expected from CAPE buildup and polar positive lightning strikes to develop a severe weather threat. NO3 will slightly tighten with soluble H20 to create a slight atmosphere for ground tornado development. Measurements of new information taken this morning indicate the slight potential for hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes April 20-21, 2023. Surface measurements are running .26, .25, .21, .20, and .19 which indicates a slight chance of tornadoes but this could change in the coming days. A new parameter of hail and wind threshold has been developed which indicates a hail and wind surface measurement of .23. This indicates hail and wind will be a better bet with severe storms on the next system. Measurements are still below the .31 threshold of dangerous tornado potential. Basically, EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes could play out as of the latest measurements in an isolated fashion but the risk is low. Check back tonight for more information on surface measurements and forecast updates.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams