A 997 mb low will move from Kansas to Wisconsin on April 20 - 21, 2023 swinging a cool front/dry line across the Southern Plains, Mississippi River Valley, and Eastern Arkansas River Valley. Better chance of hail and wind with this system. Moderate Non-polar CH4 release is expected from tree stems, and shallow water systems such as creeks, rivers, and lakes. Moderate NO3 levels are expected from CAPE buildup and polar positive lightning strikes to develop a severe weather threat. NO3 of 0076 to 0101 PPM will moderately tighten with soluble H20 to create a moderate atmosphere for ground tornado development. Measurements of new information taken this morning indicate the high potential for hail, wind, and slight to moderate risk for tornadoes April 20-21, 2023. Surface measurements are running .35, .33, .23, .23, and .22 which indicates a moderate chance of tornadoes. A new parameter of hail and wind threshold has been developed which indicates a hail and wind surface measurement of .29. This indicates hail and wind will be a better bet with severe storms on the next system. Measurements have reached the max threshold for the slight potential of strong to violent tornadoes today. Basically, EF-0 to EF-5 tornadoes large hail, and damaging winds could play out as of the latest measurements from Iowa and Illinois to Texas.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams