A surface low, warm front, and cool front will move across Texas Today. This will bring a risk of hail, wind, and tornadoes. As of this morning, CH4 release from lakes and rivers near Fort Worth ranged from less than 1 um2 to 650 um2. Across West Texas, CH4 release from rivers was less than 1 um2 to 1700 um2. Tree stem CH4 release across South Texas near the coast was running 1 um2 to 150 um2. Tree stem CH4 release in Fort Worth was running 24 um2 from one specific location in the city. Tree stem release at a specific location in Dallas County Texas was running less than 1 um2. NO3 field across Dallas and Fort Worth is running from 0004 to 0071. It appears an offset may be developing in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex would indicate hail and wind the main factors if that can even develop. Red River this morning at the Oklahoma border is running CH4 less than 1 um2 and NO3 fields along the Red River are running 0004 to 0040. This indicates no tornadoes are expected along the Red River at this time. A new update will come out around noon concerning this situation. Central and South Texas NO3 fields are running 0040 to 0081. CH4 in Central Texas from river release is running 550 um2. Deciduous tree stem release in central and south Texas is running from 1 um2 to 9 um2.
As of current readings isolated tornado potential is possible across North Texas near the Red River north of Dallas and Tarrant Counties on a conditional threat. If an offset occurs in this region then no tornadoes will be possible. South of this region the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex is even more complicated. Western Dallas County into Tarrant County might have the best risk of severe weather this afternoon for North Texas once again on a conditional threat. If CH4 levels retreat as the typical trend through afternoon hours with an advancing front then the risk of tornadoes may also retreat depending on how much mols are entering the atmosphere this morning. If enough CH4 can interact with the advancing storm system this afternoon then a tornado threat would ensue. Central and South Texas have the best setup today for tornadoes in my opinion as the CH4 level will be there in both tree stem and river CH4 release. However, atmospheric setup in that areas seems to be somewhat less helpful. It is possible that isolated tornadoes will be the mainstay for this afternoon and evening if the atmosphere does not line up with CH4 and NO3 constants.
A new update will be sent out at about noon today on this severe weather threat.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams