A stationary front in the Gulf of Mexico is moving north as a warm front through Texas Tuesday. CH4 in the range of 700 um2 is indicated near Austin Texas from river release. Also, south of Austin near Goliad Texas CH4 was noted at 1 um2 near river release. Tree stem release of CH4 is forecast to be 1 um2 to 150 um2 Tuesday into Wednesday. New information as of this morning across West Texas has neared a high CH4 release of 1050 um2 to 1390 um2 of river release but that has since decreased significantly. However, indications are CH4 releases from a river in Western Oklahoma are running 1600 um2. The NO3 fields across the severe threat region are running from west of Durant Oklahoma along the Red River Southern Oklahoma and North Texas 0071. In Dallas Texas, the NO3 is running around 0071. Fort Worth and Tarrant County Texas have a NO3 level ranging from 0061 to 0081 this afternoon. Deeper into Texas near Round Rock NO3 levels are running 0071. Areas in western Texas near the moderate CH4 release have NO3 levels of 0081. This will set the stage for hail, wind, and isolated EF-0 to EF-2 tornado potential on Tuesday. NO3 of 0051 to 0081 becoming soluble with H20 in the updraft of storms will tighten to help produce isolated tornado activity. Also, CH4 being emitted in areas near Austin to Western Oklahoma between 1 and 1600 um2 could exasperate conditions for tornado development. Tree stem release of CH4 between 1 and 150 um2 across Texas could also increase tornado potential. Also, tree stems CH4 release in Western Oklahoma of 2 um2 is expected.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist Wayne Adams