A strong storm system will move across the Plains, Midwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. NO3 within rainfall will increase over time. Release of CH4 from trees and denitrification will increase the threat of severe storms. The biggest update to this forecast is moving the main tornado watch line east to near Paris Arkansas for Friday afternoon. Slight to strong denitrification patterns is expected across the region and this will owe to more of a QLCS development with tornadoes developing within the lines. Also, supercells may form ahead of the line and produce tornadoes. Currently, WALT Model 2 indicates EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes possible across portions of Missouri, Iowa, Mississippi (an isolated area of northwest Mississippi could see stronger tornadoes), Tennessee, and Kentucky. Other tornadoes across the region are possible but for this discussion, the best chance of tornado formation is indicated. Tornadoes are not out of the question in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas but feel they will be in the EF-1 intensity range as of now according to WALT Model 2. Currently, WALT Model 2 indicates areas of tornado formation could be near south of Memphis and north of Tyro Mississippi. More updates will be posted tonight after the denitrification analysis has been recorded in the morning. I would expect at least 2 tornado watches over a 12-hour period and then severe thunderstorm watches thereafter. The reason for this is that early morning denitrification may only be strong enough for hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist, Wayne Adams