A strong storm system will move across the Plains, Midwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. NO3 within rainfall will increase over time. Release of CH4 from trees and denitrification will increase the threat of severe storms. The ground model continues to hold tornado intensity near Tyro to EF-1 if it can occur. A more significant ground indication tonight is being shifted into the city of South Memphis Tennessee from EF-0 to EF-2. The biggest update on this ground analysis will be a shift eastward by another 58 miles to Morrilton Arkansas. Areas east of Morrilton Arkansas appear to have the best tornado risk with this system. Central Arkansas has the potential for EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes according to WALT Model 2 on the latest update. Slight to strong denitrification patterns is expected across the region and this will owe to more of a QLCS development with tornadoes developing within the lines. Also, supercells may form ahead of the line and produce tornadoes. Currently, WALT Model 2 indicates EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes possible across portions of Missouri, Iowa, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Other tornadoes across the region are possible, but the best chance of tornado formation is indicated for this discussion. Tornadoes are not out of the question in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas but feel they will be in the EF-1 intensity range as of now according to WALT Model 2. Currently, WALT Model 2 indicates areas of tornado formation could be near south of Memphis and north of Tyro Mississippi. More updates will be posted tonight after the denitrification analysis has been recorded in the evening. I would expect at least 2 tornado watches over a 12-hour period and then severe thunderstorm watches thereafter. The reason for this is that early morning denitrification may only be strong enough for hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist, Wayne Adams