SONFIRE ALMANACS LLC Physics Analysis of Thursday's Storms.
Hail up to half dollar in size, wind gusts from 30 to 65 miles per hour, and a slight chance of EF-1 tornadoes are all slightly possible on Thursday. CH4 release from trees appears to be more concentrated for tornado formation near the Red River although. NO3 slight tightening within the updraft appears possible in these regions as well. This means polarity in lightning will likely be polar. Dangerous killer lightning is possible near the Red River of Oklahoma and Texas. Slight NO3 non-polar development is possible within the updraft of any storms that develop near the Red River and North Texas. Otherwise, polar and non-polar lightning will be possible together over the rest of the region. This tends to indicate that hail and wind will be the most likely scenario with the given atmospheric and ground physics.
Deeper south into Texas, Dallas, and Northern Tarrant County Texas appears to have a polarity associated with dangerous lightning. Tightening within the updraft by NO3 appears to be slight and that will also be the risk of a tornado as well. CH4 release in these regions will also be slight. Hail and wind appear to be the dominant pattern considering the release of CH4 and tightening of NO3 within the updraft process of any supercell that develops Thursday. Otherwise, polar and non-polar lightning will be possible together over the rest of the region. This tends to indicate that hail and wind will be the most likely scenario with the given atmospheric and ground physics.
Forecaster:
Climate Scientist, Wayne Adams