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Wednesday - Thursday Severe Weather Forecast Discussion

Severe storms are expected to develop over the Southern Plains, Central Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley. Currently, WALT Model 2 indicates nonpolar NO3 and polar H2O will become soluble within the updraft and NO3 would increase with time. Strong Nitrification and CH4 release is expected ahead of the dry line and behind it. Severe storms are expected to develop in Eastern Oklahoma near Seminole and will have an EF-1 tornado risk according to ground instruments in the latest update. It is too early to tell by WALT Model 2 what specific areas could be affected. However, our long-range model indicates the best tornado risk will be near Seminole, McAlester to Durant region, and Stigler. Also into Kansas, North Texas, and Missouri. However, this is tentative and tomorrow will see a little bit better idea of the situation on WALT Model 2 and the ground model.