Hello.
Let's map out the trading scenarios for the week ahead.
I publish these "Trade Scenarios" posts on Sundays.
Then, on Saturdays, I publish a "Weekly Trade Report" reviewing how the market actually moved over the past week and where trading opportunities emerged based on those scenarios.
The report is available exclusively to newsletter subscribers, so if you're interested, please sign up for my newsletter.
(It's free.)
By reading these reports alongside the Trade Scenarios posts, you can get a practical look at the consistent process behind my trading—how I plan ahead, what I wait for, and how I execute.
My trading focuses on buying pullbacks and selling rallies on the 4h timeframe.
For more details on my strategy for buying pullbacks and selling rallies, please read my previous blog posts.
1. Dow Theory and Multi-Timeframe Analysis
2. What Does It Mean to “Buy Low”?
3. The Importance of Trading Where Orders Cascade
4. How to Use Moving Averages (Granville’s Rules)
5. On Setting Your Stop-Loss and Consistent Risk Management
A scenario is not a prediction.
Rather than predicting what will happen, it's a plan built around "If this happens, I'll do that."
I don't try to predict the market, and that's not what these scenarios are intended to do, so please keep that in mind.
These posts are not intended to tell you when to buy or sell, nor do they provide trading signals.
They do not guarantee future profits and are provided solely for educational purposes, using my own thinking and the process that follows from it as examples.
I cannot take responsibility for any outcomes of your trades, so please trade at your own risk.
Let's start with USDJPY.
(The lines I've drawn on the charts represent price movements on different timeframes: orange for daily, red for 4h, blue for 1h, and green for 15m.)
USDJPY
Daily
The daily chart has finally confirmed a clear reversal into an uptrend by forming a higher low and breaking above the previous high.
However, there are several levels in this area that require attention, so I'll take those into account when building my scenarios.
4h
On the long side, if the 4h chart forms a higher low with either the lower blue line or the upper orange line acting as support, as shown here, I would consider buying on a lower timeframe.
With several levels to watch in this area, I want to wait for conditions that allow me to enter as close to support as possible.
Next, let's look at the short scenario.
4h
On the short side, I would similarly look for a lower high on the 4h chart as close to resistance as possible and consider selling on a lower timeframe within that structure.
Now let's move on to EURUSD.
EURUSD
Daily
EURUSD is in a downtrend on the daily chart, so my main focus would be on selling.
However, price has already reached the support level below, so for a short trade, I would need to wait for a well-defined retracement rally on the 4h chart.
Alternatively, I could consider buying a move back toward the daily moving average, as the sharp decline has left a large gap between price and the MA.
4h
I don't know exactly how the structure will develop, but once the current 4h downtrend has been invalidated, one possible scenario is to trade a daily retracement rally, entering as price reverses into an uptrend or as a higher low forms on the 4h chart.
I would consider buying if price also breaks above the moving average and begins to find support.
4h
On the short side, if the current downtrend first ends and price then forms a lower high as it reverses into a new downtrend, I would consider selling on a lower timeframe.
4h
I would also consider selling on a lower timeframe if price forms a lower high with the lower blue line acting as resistance.
That's all for now.
These are just examples of scenarios I've developed from the current charts.
In practice, once the week begins, I update my scenarios in real time as the price action develops.
I keep repeating the same process.
That is because I understand very well what happens over time when I keep taking the same type of trade.
I trust that losses and losing streaks will ultimately be offset by profits, so I do not get angry about a loss or think about winning it back.
What I fear far more is deviating from my rules.
I never break my rules by closing a winning trade too early, nor do I refuse to cut a loss and keep holding the position indefinitely in the hope of a recovery.
This is not a matter of courage or willpower.
I understand just how dangerous those behaviors are and how they prevent my capital from growing.
I keep a position open because the reason to hold it is still there.
I close it because that reason is no longer there.
The key is to keep doing these simple things as a matter of course.
The scenarios I share on this blog cover only USDJPY and EURUSD, but I will also include useful examples from other currency pairs in the Saturday trade reports when they arise.
The Saturday trade reports are available exclusively to newsletter subscribers, so if you're interested, please sign up for my newsletter.
You can read my previous blog posts here.
These trading scenarios are simply my own plans.
If you haven't yet established your own trading approach, I hope they can serve as a useful reference as you develop your strategy.
But if you already have a well-defined approach, please don't let my trading plans distract you from your own.
Stay committed to following your own rules.
Thank you for reading all the way to the end.