Hello.
Let's map out the trading scenarios for the week ahead.
I publish these "Trade Scenarios" posts on Sundays.
Then, on Saturdays, I publish a "Weekly Trade Report" reviewing how the market actually moved over the past week and where trading opportunities emerged based on those scenarios.
The report is available exclusively to newsletter subscribers, so if you're interested, please sign up for my newsletter.
(It's free.)
By reading these reports alongside the Trade Scenarios posts, you can get a practical look at the consistent process behind my trading—how I plan ahead, what I wait for, and how I execute.
My trading focuses on buying pullbacks and selling rallies on the 4h timeframe.
For more details on my strategy for buying pullbacks and selling rallies, please read my previous blog posts.
1. Dow Theory and Multi-Timeframe Analysis
2. What Does It Mean to “Buy Low”?
3. The Importance of Trading Where Orders Cascade
4. How to Use Moving Averages (Granville’s Rules)
5. On Setting Your Stop-Loss and Consistent Risk Management
A scenario is not a prediction.
Rather than predicting what will happen, it's a plan built around "If this happens, I'll do that."
I don't try to predict the market, and that's not what these scenarios are intended to do, so please keep that in mind.
These posts are not intended to tell you when to buy or sell, nor do they provide trading signals.
They do not guarantee future profits and are provided solely for educational purposes, using my own thinking and the process that follows from it as examples.
I cannot take responsibility for any outcomes of your trades, so please trade at your own risk.
Let's start with USDJPY.
(The lines I've drawn on the charts represent price movements on different timeframes: orange for daily, red for 4h, blue for 1h, and green for 15m.)
USDJPY
Daily
The market remains difficult to trade.
On the weekly chart, price is in a sell-the-rally area within a downtrend.
Within that structure, the daily chart is showing a higher low and a higher high, but price has not yet clearly broken above the most recent high.
There is strong resistance just overhead and strong support below.
Taking a position in either direction carries risk in these conditions.
I trade at points where orders from many traders operating across different timeframes converge, so I stay out of situations like this, where their outlooks are divided.
The more divided those outlooks are and the more dispersed the orders, the more likely price action is to become choppy.
These conditions have made trading difficult recently, but what matters is recognizing that "this is not the right environment to trade in" and faithfully following your scenario.
"Finding a way to trade no matter what" is not a skill.
It is simply reckless.
You need to understand the current market environment and then ask, "What needs to happen, and what will I do if it does?"
With that in mind, let's look at the 4h chart.
4h
Given the daily structure, buying is difficult at this stage.
On the short side, however, I would consider a trade if a lower high forms on the daily chart and the necessary conditions develop within that structure.
If the 4h chart forms a lower high with levels such as this blue line acting as resistance, I would consider selling on a lower timeframe.
If price breaks decisively higher on the daily chart and then forms a pullback, buying could also become an option.
However, I plan to develop those scenarios as price action unfolds once the week begins.
Now let's move on to EURUSD.
EURUSD
Daily
EURUSD is in a downtrend on the daily chart, so my main focus would be on selling.
However, price has already reached the support level below and is caught between levels that require caution, so EURUSD is not yet in an environment where I can trade immediately either.
4h
For example, if the 4h chart forms a lower high with the lower blue line acting as resistance, as shown here, that would offer a clearer setup for selling.
As with USDJPY, neither buying nor selling is straightforward until price breaks out in one direction or the other, so I intend to wait for that.
That's all for now.
These are just examples of scenarios I've developed from the current charts.
In practice, once the week begins, I update my scenarios in real time as the price action develops.
If the conditions I need for a trade are not in place, I will wait for as long as it takes.
As traders, we cannot control how the market moves, so all we can do is wait.
Forcing a trade when your rules do not allow one is not flexibility or adaptability.
True flexibility means waiting for as long as it takes for the right market conditions, and trading only when they are in place.
Trading takes time.
If you think of it as a way to make money quickly, you will learn the hard way.
Preparation takes time, practice takes time, and maintaining consistency takes time.
And on the path to mastery, you will face plenty of adversity.
But no one succeeds without experiencing adversity and failure.
Adversity and failure are there to help you succeed.
When you face them head-on, what you need at that moment has a way of revealing itself.
Because you are searching for answers, everything around you begins to offer clues, and those clues start connecting in your mind, forming a path toward what you are seeking.
We each face different challenges and failures, but not making the most of them means letting something valuable go to waste.
No one enjoys adversity or failure.
But that is precisely why the way you view the adversity you cannot avoid matters so much.
I've gone a little off topic, but this is something I always want to share with those who take trading seriously.
Trading is demanding, and that is exactly why I am always rooting for those who are genuinely committed to it.
The scenarios I share on this blog cover only USDJPY and EURUSD, but I will also include useful examples from other currency pairs in the Saturday trade reports when they arise.
The Saturday trade reports are available exclusively to newsletter subscribers, so if you're interested, please sign up for my newsletter.
You can read my previous blog posts here.
These trading scenarios are simply my own plans.
If you haven't yet established your own trading approach, I hope they can serve as a useful reference as you develop your strategy.
But if you already have a well-defined approach, please don't let my trading plans distract you from your own.
Stay committed to following your own rules.
Thank you for reading all the way to the end.