Hello.
Let's map out the trading scenarios for the coming week.
I publish this "Trade Scenarios" blog on Sundays.
Then, on Saturdays, I publish a "Weekly Trade Report" reviewing how the market actually moved over the past week and where trading opportunities emerged based on those scenarios.
Going forward, the Saturday "Weekly Trade Report" will be available exclusively to newsletter subscribers, so if you're interested, please sign up for my newsletter.
It's free.
By reading these reports alongside the Trade Scenarios posts, you can get a practical look at the consistent process behind my trading—how I plan ahead, what I wait for, and how I execute.
For more on the strategy itself, please see my blog post on Dow Theory and multi-timeframe analysis.
A scenario is not a prediction.
Rather than predicting what will happen, it's a plan built around "If this happens, I'll do that."
I don't try to predict the market, and that's not what these scenarios are intended to do.
Please keep that in mind.
These posts are also not intended to tell you when to buy or sell, nor do they provide trading signals.
They do not guarantee future profits.
They are provided strictly for educational purposes, using my own thinking and the process that follows from it as examples.
I cannot take responsibility for any outcomes of your trades, so please make your own trading decisions and trade at your own risk.
Let's start with USDJPY.
(The lines I've drawn on the charts represent price movements on different timeframes: orange for daily, red for 4h, blue for 1h, and green for 15m.)
USDJPY
Daily
On the daily chart, price recently appeared ready to establish an uptrend by forming a higher low and breaking above the previous high.
However, it subsequently broke below the low, invalidating that emerging uptrend.
Since then, price has shown signs of forming both higher lows and lower highs, creating a range-like structure without establishing a clear trend.
This becomes easier to understand when we look one timeframe higher, at the weekly chart.
Weekly
On the weekly chart, price has broken below the previous low, forming a lower high and a lower low and establishing a downtrend.
Price is now encountering resistance around the weekly MA, putting it in a potential area for selling a rally.
Now let's return to the daily chart.
Daily
This chart shows the weekly price structure we just examined overlaid on the daily chart.
On the daily chart, price appears to be attempting to form a higher low, supported by the MA.
However, as we just saw, the weekly chart is at a potential lower-high formation area, where sellers may look to enter.
When traders operating on different timeframes have conflicting perspectives and buying and selling interests collide, price action can become choppy or range-bound.
These are situations where we need to be particularly careful.
With that context in mind, let's look at the 4h chart.
4h
At present, price is also being held below a trendline drawn through two highs.
If price breaks above these lines and then pulls back to find support around the recent highs, forming a potential higher low on the 4h chart, I would consider buying if a lower timeframe also begins forming higher lows and higher highs.
4h
On the short side, I would look for price to form a new lower high on the daily chart.
Within that structure, I would look for a potential lower-high formation on the 4h chart that could lead to a lower low, and seek a short entry on a lower timeframe as that lower high develops.
In this case, both the weekly and daily charts would favor selling, aligning the intentions of traders across multiple timeframes and making it more likely that sell orders would concentrate in the same area.
4h
Another possibility is that price rises further and then encounters resistance, such as the blue resistance line I've drawn for clarity.
If the 4h chart then begins forming a lower high and a lower low, I would consider selling.
In this case, however, the daily chart would have confirmed an uptrend by breaking above the previous high.
The further price falls, the greater the risk that buyers following the daily uptrend will step in to buy the pullback.
This means the short trade would be targeting the decline that forms a pullback on the daily chart, so the key consideration is whether the available move offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
I would assess whether there is sufficient room in the area marked by the purple rectangle.
Now let's move on to EURUSD.
EURUSD
Weekly
On the weekly chart, price has clearly broken below the previous low, establishing a downtrend with a lower high and a lower low.
Daily
On the daily chart, price has repeatedly formed lower highs and lower lows, establishing a clear downtrend.
This is a chart where I would prefer to look for opportunities to sell rallies.
However, price has already fallen sharply and is now beginning to show signs of stabilizing.
There is also a significant gap between price and the MA, so if the 4h chart reverses into an uptrend and price begins rising to form a retracement on the daily chart, I would also consider buying.
I've emphasized this many times in these scenario posts, but none of this is a prediction.
These are simply "scenarios" for responding to what actually happens in the market, based on observable facts—"If this happens, I'll do that."
That is precisely what matters.
With all of that in mind, let's look at the 4h chart.
4h
On the 4h chart, lows are beginning to move higher, suggesting that the decline is starting to stabilize.
If price breaks above the MA and begins forming higher lows and higher highs while finding support at key support levels, I would consider buying on a lower timeframe.
However, this would still be a rally forming a retracement within the daily downtrend.
The daily chart would remain in a downtrend.
The higher price rises, the greater the risk that sellers will step in to sell the rally, so the key to this long trade is whether an entry opportunity emerges with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
4h
If, following that rise, price begins forming lower highs as it encounters resistance around areas such as the daily MA or the blue resistance line, and then breaks below the MA, I could also consider trading the decline as part of a sell-the-rally setup on the daily chart.
This is an area where the direction of orders from traders on the weekly, daily, and 4h timeframes would align, making it more likely that orders would concentrate in the same area.
4h
Alternatively, if price breaks below the lows where the decline had appeared to stabilize and then forms a lower high, I would consider selling on a lower timeframe within that lower-high formation.
That's all for this week.
It's been a while since I last published a Trade Scenarios post, but what I do has never changed.
I use multi-timeframe analysis and Dow Theory to identify areas where the perspectives and orders of many traders are likely to converge, and I consistently repeat the same disciplined actions.
Going forward, the Saturday Weekly Trade Reports will be available exclusively to newsletter subscribers, so if you're interested, please sign up for my newsletter.
You can also read my previous blog posts here if you're interested.
These trading scenarios are simply my own plans.
If you haven't yet established your own trading approach, I hope they can serve as a useful reference as you develop your strategy.
But if you already have a well-defined trading system, don't let my trading plans distract you from your own.
Stay fully committed to following your own rules.
Thank you for reading all the way to the end.