Hello.
Let's map out the trading scenarios for the coming week.
I publish these "Trade Scenarios" posts on Sundays.
Then, on Saturdays, I publish a "Weekly Trade Report" reviewing how the market actually moved over the past week and where trading opportunities emerged based on those scenarios.
The report is available exclusively to newsletter subscribers, so if you're interested, please sign up for my newsletter.
(It's free.)
By reading these reports alongside the Trade Scenarios posts, you can get a practical look at the consistent process behind my trading—how I plan ahead, what I wait for, and how I execute.
My trading focuses on buying pullbacks and selling rallies on the 4h timeframe.
For more details on my strategy for buying pullbacks and selling rallies, please read my previous blog post on Dow Theory and multi-timeframe analysis.
Please note that this report does not provide buy or sell instructions or trading signals, nor does it guarantee future profits.
It is provided for educational purposes only.
Please trade at your own risk.
A scenario is not a prediction.
Rather than predicting what will happen, it's a plan built around "If this happens, I'll do that."
I don't try to predict the market, and that's not what these scenarios are intended to do, so please keep that in mind.
These posts are not intended to tell you when to buy or sell, nor do they provide trading signals.
They do not guarantee future profits and are provided solely for educational purposes, using my own thinking and the process that follows from it as examples.
I cannot take responsibility for any outcomes of your trades, so please trade at your own risk.
Let's start with USDJPY.
(The lines I've drawn on the charts represent price movements on different timeframes: orange for daily, red for 4h, blue for 1h, and green for 15m.)
USDJPY
Daily
The daily chart has finally confirmed the start of a downtrend by forming a lower high and breaking below the previous low.
My main focus will be on selling rallies, though depending on conditions, I may also consider buying to capture a retracement rally on the daily chart.
Weekly
On the weekly chart, price is in a sell-the-rally area within an ongoing downtrend.
The daily chart has now also reversed into a downtrend within that broader structure.
There are several horizontal levels to watch, so I need to take these into account when building my scenarios.
Now let's look at the 4h chart.
4h
On the 4h chart, price is attempting to form a higher low, showing signs that the decline may be stabilizing.
I'm paying particular attention to the lower blue line I drew earlier, so I'll build my scenarios around that level.
4h
For example, if price breaks below this blue line and then forms a lower high with that line acting as resistance, as shown here, I would consider selling on a lower timeframe.
4h
Alternatively, if price breaks above the 4h moving average and reverses into an uptrend by forming a higher low and breaking above the previous high, I would consider buying.
However, that advance would be a retracement rally on the daily chart, so the higher price rises, the more likely it is to attract selling.
I would therefore need to see whether an entry opportunity offers sufficient potential reward relative to risk.
If I do take a position, I would also need to manage the trade using measures such as taking profits on half the position.
Now let's move on to EURUSD.
EURUSD
Daily
The daily chart is in a downtrend, with a lower high taking shape.
My main focus will be on selling, while keeping a close eye on nearby support levels.
4h
A lower high is already forming on the 4h chart, with the blue line I drew appearing to act as resistance, so I would consider selling if conditions on a lower timeframe support an entry.
This is the structure I was waiting for in last week's scenario.
4h — From Last Week's Trade Scenarios
I'll watch how price develops from here and consider selling if a suitable entry opportunity emerges.
4h
On the long side, if price breaks above the blue line and then forms a higher low with that line acting as support, as shown here, a higher low would also be forming on the daily chart.
However, I would not take this trade.
The trendline overhead also marks an area that could be seen as a lower-high formation on the daily chart.
Traders are likely to be split between buying and selling in this area, making a concentration of orders in one direction less likely, so I would stay out.
4h
If price breaks above that trendline and then forms a higher low at a support level, I might consider buying.
However, there is a resistance level just overhead, so I would also need to assess whether the trade offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
That's all for now.
These are just examples of scenarios I've developed from the current charts.
In practice, once the week begins, I update my scenarios in real time as the price action develops.
The scenarios I share on this blog cover only USDJPY and EURUSD, but I also plan to include examples from other currency pairs in the Saturday trade reports when there is something useful to learn from them.
The Saturday trade reports are available exclusively to newsletter subscribers, so if you're interested, please sign up for my newsletter.
You can read my previous blog posts here.
These trading scenarios are simply my own plans.
If you haven't yet established your own trading approach, I hope they can serve as a useful reference as you develop your strategy.
But if you already have a well-defined approach, please don't let my trading plans distract you from your own.
Stay committed to following your own rules.
Thank you for reading all the way to the end.