If you built a 1-person unicorn, your expected present-day payout is $258K.
Say what???
Math below. Link to the free tool in the end.
Founder Proceeds = Exit Value * Founder Ownership
Median software founder ownership at Series D is 10.9%, assuming that's your share at Exit,
Founder Proceeds = $1,000,000,000 * 11% = $110M
Expected Value = Founder Proceeds * Probability of Reaching Exit, where
Probability of Reaching Exit = PROD (Prob of Reaching Stage x), where
Prob_Pre-Seed_Seed = 70%
Prob_Seed_A = 25%
Prob_A_B = 45%
Prob_B_C = 45%
Prob_C_D = 30%
Prob_D_Exit = 55%
Hence, Probability of Reaching Exit = 0.7 * 0.25 * 0.45 * 0.45 * 0.3 * 0.55 = 0.58%. So
Expected Value = $110M * 0.58% = $638K
Expected Present Value = Expected Value / (1+Discount)^(Timeline in Years)
Assuming 10% discount (i.e., you’re recognizing that a future dollar isn’t as valuable as a current dollar, so you reduce its value by 10% to bring it back to today’s terms).
Timeline from Pre-Seed to Exit = SUM(Timeline to Stage x), where
Time_Pre-Seed_Seed = 15 mon
Time_Seed_A = 21 mon
Time_A_B = 20 mon
Time_B_C = 18 mon
Time_C_D = 16 mon
Time_D_Exit = 24 mon
Hence, Timeline from Pre-Seed to Exit = 114 mon, i.e., 9.5 years. Plug it in, and we have:
Expected Present Value = $638K / (1+10%)^9.5 = $257,982.45
i.e.,
If you built a 1-person unicorn, your expected present-day payout is $258K.
BUT WAIT!!!
What about liquidation waterfall, which involves preference stacks, participation rights, multiple liquidation preference multiples, and seniority across rounds? A $1B exit with 11% ownership rarely yields $110M to founders.
What about a better way to calculate probability to exit than the linear multiplication? Startup outcomes vary dramatically and depend on numerous company-specific, market-driven, and contractual factors that cannot be accurately captured in a generalized model.
What about option pools, down rounds, sector variances, vesting schedules, specific terms, different exit types (IPO vs M&A vs PE vs Acquire-Hire), etc etc etc?
If you are challenging the math with questions like these. Awesome!!! You've already engaged deeply with the complexities of startup finance. That level of knowledge and awareness is a real asset.
If all the technical detail sounds unfamiliar and perhaps a bit confusing to you, you're in good company. The vast majority of successful founders learned startup finance on the job, not in advance.
Anyhoo, I built a simple interactive tool that shows the Founder Proceeds, Expected Value, and Expected Present Value per sector, based on benchmark data on dilution and probabilities for a few different sectors and exit types.
It can't account for every variable in your unique situation, but it gives you solid, data-backed, realistic range of outcomes to help you decide if the venture path makes sense for you. I hope this tool saves you from painful surprises later.
Give it a try: https://tinyurl.com/4tf9bdpc