Modeling the Impact of Icebreaker‑Enabled Arctic Shipping on Global Maritime Networks: Implications for Southeast Asian Trade Corridors

This review integrates sea-ice forecasting, icebreaker escort capacity, route-level cost/time/emissions accounting, and global maritime network simulation to assess when and how seasonal Arctic corridors, principally the Northern Sea Route (NSR), may reshape container liner networks and affect Malacca‑centred trade corridors. We synthesise short‑term ARIMA and ensemble CMIP6 projections with an escort‑scheduling module and voyage economics to derive route‑viability thresholds, then embed those thresholds in a network rebalancing engine that reallocates origin–destination flows. Results emphasise that probabilistic seasonality and limited icebreaker capacity are the decisive operational constraints: even when distance savings exist, escort fees, insurance premiums, reduced speeds in ice, and SAR limits often erode net advantages, making NSR use niche and seasonal under most plausible fuel and demand scenarios. Network experiments suggest measurable TEU reallocation away from some Malacca-linked transshipment legs and concentrated feeder impacts on short feeder strings, while dominant hubs with deep hinterland linkages (for example Singapore) show greater resilience. The review translates these findings into policy and engineering guidance for Southeast Asian ports, prioritising digital readiness, green fuel alignment, infrastructure upgrades and coordinated financing to hedge uncertainty and preserve competitiveness.