Trend Following Explained — Measured (PDF Guide)

Every course you have taken opens with "trade with the trend" and none of them has ever shown you the version of the same signal taken against it. Without the comparison the advice cannot be wrong, which is a different thing from being right.

This guide runs the trend rule on four bar sizes, then does the thing the advice has never had done to it: takes one signal, splits it by the long-term average, and reports both halves against their own controls. Both halves are pre-registered and both are printed whichever way they fall. This is a 45-page PDF that teaches Trend Following from the first thing you see on the screen through to a written strategy with an entry, a stop and an explicit rule for when the trade is wrong.

Nothing is taught underneath a chart. Every label sits on the candle, the line or the level it is describing, on real BTC, ETH, SOL and LINK charts. There are three quizzes on real charts, each followed by the same chart re-shown annotated with the reasoning, plus faded practice pages where the first steps are filled in and you finish the rest.

WHAT'S INSIDE

The trend rule on all four timeframes -- 49.92 per cent on 15-minute bars, 49.45 per cent on one-hour, 50.76 per cent on six-hour and 50.98 per cent on daily -- each against its own control.

What "with the trend" is actually worth -- 49.73 per cent on 12,805 cases against 50.11 per cent on 4,871. An edge of -0.60 points against +0.50, and neither clears 3.023.

Why a trend is two conditions, not one -- Price above an average is a location. A trend needs the average to be rising as well, and this rule requires both.

What the filter definitely does do -- It removes signals. 12,805 of 17,676 breakouts survive the with-trend filter, which is a workload change rather than an accuracy one.

And the one-hour cell that cleared and then fell over -- z -3.99 on 64,506 cases, destroyed by three of four attacks. Guide #72 prints that story in full.

WHAT YOU'LL BE ABLE TO DO

State a trend as two conditions rather than one.

Split any filter you use into its two halves and count both.

Say what a filter removes before saying what it improves.

Tell a null from a recommendation to do the opposite.

Check whether a result depends on the length you chose.

AN HONEST NOTE

Trend Following is a clue, not a crystal ball. It describes what price has already done. This guide contains no win-rates, no backtest results and no promises about what you will make, because nobody can verify those and you should not trust anyone who prints them. What it hands you instead is a set of rules you can test yourself on TradingView in an afternoon. Educational, not financial advice.

Instant download. 45 pages, PDF.