Better to travel than to arrive: why UK life insurers now fall on results day

UK life insurers used to rise on the day they reported results. Now they fall, through good numbers and bad. In the results season just gone, all five UK-listed life insurers fell on the day, and one of them extended a run of eight consecutive results-day falls stretching back to 2022.

I back-tested 65 results announcements across Aviva, Legal & General, M&G, Standard Life and Chesnara over seven years to find out when the pattern flipped, and why. The break lands in one specific place in the calendar, and it was not where I first looked. Six European insurers tested the same way show no break at all, and the difference between the two groups points at something specific about UK balance sheets.

The answer matters beyond results day. It explains why the market keeps calling well-covered dividends uncovered, why private capital has been paying premiums for businesses the listed market marks down, and what I would do about it, both as the companies' problem and the market's.

The 29-page report contains the full event registries, the statistical tests behind every claim, the case study, 18 exhibits, and four appendices covering methodology, the complete data, supporting analysis and standard valuation pages for the five names.

Independent research by Aitken Advisory Limited, written by a former Managing Director and Head of European Insurance Research. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.