2026 Automotive Execution Risk Report (AERM Framework | March - April 2026)

What this report covers

The 2026 Automotive Execution Risk Report is a ten-page intelligence brief built for OEM strategy directors, procurement leaders, and supply chain professionals who need named data, not industry averages.

Every figure in this report comes from FY2025 full-year public filings. No analyst estimates. No interpolated data.

The OEM scorecard

Nine major OEMs ranked by FY2025 adjusted EBIT margin. Stellantis posted a net loss of €22.3B. Mercedes fell from 10.4% in 2022 to 3.4%. Toyota's margin now sits 9.4 percentage points above the next closest competitor. The industry average is 3.9%, below pre-Covid levels.

Supplier distress map

ZF posted a net loss of €2.1B. Forvia posted a net loss of €2.09B. Both are inside your active OEM programs. The report scores all four major distressed tier-1 suppliers across AERM dimensions and identifies what the restructuring activity means for program continuity.

The EV reset

Over $75B in EV write-downs and restructuring charges have been recorded across the industry from 2023 through 2026. The report maps which OEMs are carrying the heaviest exposure and what it means for supplier program funding through 2028.

Tariff exposure

The 25% US tariff on imported vehicles adds approximately $1,200 per US household. The Detroit Three face $902M in direct additional costs at roughly $250 per vehicle. The report identifies which OEMs hold a structural advantage from North American manufacturing footprints and which are exposed.

Spinoff execution risk

Continental's Aumovio spinoff is a working case study in how a parent company's restructuring destroys in-flight OEM program capacity. The report covers Aumovio and Versigent separately, with specific data points on R&D headcount cuts and what that means for 2027 and 2028 program delivery.

Growth signals

Hybrid adoption doubled in three years. North American domestic production now represents 55% of US vehicles sold. The report identifies four areas where volume and revenue are expanding regardless of the restructuring headlines.

AERM methodology

The Automotive Execution Risk Model scores supplier and OEM execution risk across three independent dimensions: Financial, Operational, and Strategic. All scores in this report are derived from publicly available FY2025 filings using a proprietary scoring rubric built from over ten years of automotive sector analysis.

Format

This report is delivered as a single pdf file. Open it. The document renders exactly as designed with full typography, color-coded risk badges, data tables, and multi-column layouts intact

About the author

Srinivas J is a Manufacturing and Automotive Performance Analyst. All data in this report is sourced from publicly available FY2025 filings. A full engagement version of the AERM assessment is available for teams that need named program-level exposure analysis rather than industry-wide data.