[VTI] Moving Average (SMA) Strategy Backtest vs DCA – 200-Day, Weekly, Monthly - v2026.09

DCA if it's good enough. Use SMA if the evidence says it's better.

This interactive handbook tests 28 daily, weekly, and monthly SMAs on VTI, including the 200-day and 200-week, over 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, each benchmarked against DCA. Historical backtest, not advice.

Zero black boxes. Standard parameters only, no optimization. Just pure historical evidence.

📊 What’s Inside This Interactive Handbook?

• 28 Standard SMA Parameters Across 3 Timeframes:
• Daily SMA (9 Parameters): 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, 100, 120, 200, 250 (From weekly momentum to institutional 200DMA).
• Weekly SMA (10 Parameters): 5, 10, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 100, 150, 200 (From swing trends to the legendary 200WMA).
• Monthly SMA (9 Parameters): 3, 5, 6, 10, 12, 24, 36, 60, 120 (From quarterly regimes to the 10-year 120MMA).
• Direct DCA Baseline Scorecard: Fixed benchmark cards for 5-Year, 10-Year, 15-Year, and 20-Year cycles to instantly verify whether active timing justified its friction.
• Instant Performance Highlighting:
• 🟢 CAGR > DCA Badge: Highlights parameters that generated higher compound annual returns than passive DCA.
• 🔵 Max Drawdown Protection Badge: Identifies parameters that successfully contained downside risk better than DCA.
• Institutional Risk & Return Metrics:
• Final Assets & Total Return (%)
• Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR %)
• Maximum Drawdown (MDD %)
• Win Rate (%), Profit-to-Loss Ratio & Expectancy
• Total Trade Count & Total Days in Market

⚡ Built for Privacy & Offline Utility

• 100% Standalone Interactive HTML: Zero installation, zero external dependencies. Runs locally in any modern browser (Chrome, Safari, Edge, Firefox).
• Zero Tracking & Privacy-First: No accounts, no login portals, no tracking cookies, and no recurring subscriptions.
• Instant Native Sorting: Click any column header to sort parameters by CAGR, Drawdown, or Win Rate with zero latency—even in Airplane Mode.

⚙️ Technical Specifications

• Target Asset: VTI (Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF)
• Backtest Cut-off Date: Data updated through September 30, 2026
• Strategy: Long / Cash Simple Moving Average (SMA) Regime Filter
• Initial Capital Assumption: $10,000 USD (0% interest on unallocated cash)
• Cycles Covered: 5-Year, 10-Year, 15-Year, and 20-Year Historical Windows
• Delivery: Single .html interactive dashboard file delivered instantly upon checkout

Peer Asset Reference: Built on essentially the same underlying holdings, this report directly applies to peer funds like SCHB, ITOT.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This interactive report is provided strictly for academic, historical backtesting, and analytical reference. It does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future market results.