Oklo - Valuation Review [Lite] (Sep 2025)

What’s inside (Sep 2025) + conclusion:

A concise, analyst-style 7-slide review built from my GAAP-based DCF and comparable multiples. Conclusion: pre-revenue through 2026; at today’s valuation the equity looks ahead of fundamentals. My base-case DCF indicates material downside vs the current price. Full numbers and sensitivities are in the deck.

Slides included

• Cover (scope/date/sources)
• Thesis (what the business is; why pricing looks rich; key figures)
• Snapshot & Inputs (DCF inputs; EV, shares, cash)
• Street outlook (dated: pre-revenue to 2026; first operations targeted late ’27/early ’28)
• Valuation result (DCF → equity value/share; EV/Revenue & directional EV/E at today’s price)
• What today’s price assumes (execution, ramp, margins, dilution)
• Summary (verdict; what would change my view; catalysts/risks)

Key assumptions shown

• GAAP NI used for directional EV/E (within-sector only)
• Discount rate built from base rate + size/quality overlays (higher than for mature names)
• Terminal (maturity) growth: −1% by policy
• Cash, shares, and model date disclosed on slide footers

Note on metrics

I sometimes show EV/E = EV ÷ GAAP Net Income. It’s non-standard; I include it for continuity. For cross-company comparisons I prioritise EV/Revenue and the margin structure.

Policy

Educational research only. Not investment advice. 7-day refund if not useful.