One Big Beautiful Bill? A preliminary assessment

The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025” (OBBBA), signed into law July 4, 2025, is a sweeping tax-and-spending package that could reshape federal fiscal policy for decades to come. In a new paper, we provide a comprehensive but, of course, preliminary analysis of the Act. Ultimately, its effects will be better understood as more evidence accumulates over time.

The Act permanently extends the temporary individual income and estate tax provisions enacted in the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 and expands several of those provisions. It also introduces new targeted temporary deductions for tip income, overtime pay, and senior taxpayers; enacts large business tax cuts, most notably by providing permanent full expensing of many forms of investment; and increases spending on border security and defense. These changes are partially financed by cuts in clean energy incentives and Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and other programs that serve low-income households.