FIRE Stress Test Calculator

A simple, interactive Excel/Google Sheets tool to simulate your retirement under real market conditions.

• Simulate your retirement with real historical market data
• See how your portfolio and income evolve over time
• Full year-by-year breakdown including drawdowns and recovery
• Create your own return path or use pre-configured historical S&P 500 returns

See If Your Retirement Survives a Market Crash

Most FIRE calculators assume smooth, average returns.

Real life doesn’t.

I built this tool to test what actually happens to a retirement portfolio when markets don’t cooperate—using real historical data like the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-era volatility.

What this shows you

• How your portfolio changes year by year
• How your withdrawal income fluctuates
• When your income falls short of your spending
• How severe drawdowns impact your plan

What’s included

• Preloaded historical market scenarios (2006–present)
• 2 withdrawal strategies to choose from
• Inflation-adjusted spending model
• Income shortfall detection
• Portfolio and withdrawal visualizations

Who this is for

• You’re planning early retirement (FIRE)
• You want to test your plan against real market conditions
• You don’t trust overly optimistic projections

Important notes

• Based on S&P 500 total returns
• Simplified model (annual returns, no taxes/fees)
• Designed for exploration, not prediction

Disclaimer

This tool is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.