Package: China's Economy

Package "China's economy"

The key insights contained within this report can be divided into two main themes:

1) The long-term structural challenges for China.

• China’s working age population started a steep decline in 2020, which will intensify until 2032.
• Internal consumer demand will be under pressure in the coming decades.
• China needs to rely on exports for keeping its installed capacity running.
• China’s economic model represents a geopolitical risk for the rest of the world.
• China’s current situation is comparable to Japan in the 1990s, resulting in “two lost decades” of low economic growth and deflationary environment.

2) Ongoing real estate crisis that is a short-term risk that could develop into an acute crisis.

• Real estate new building starts dropped off a cliff from 2022 to 2025, after the Evergrande implosion.
• Real estate buildings under construction were still holding up in 2025, having dropped by only about 15% from its peak in 2022.  
• The collapse in land purchases for development and real estate starts point to the crisis deepening in the years ahead.
• The housing bubble is due to massive oversupply and not by rising prices.
• The real estate crisis is the start of a decades long economic restructuring.

Summary:

China is experiencing a real estate crisis that is similar to Japan’s in the 1990s. The collapse of Evergrande in 2021 and of Country Garden in 2023, two of China’s largest property developers are warning signs of deep troubles in the real estate market. Due to China’s scale the crisis will likely impact the global economy on an unprecedented scale.

Before analyzing China’s real estate crisis in detail, the report analyses the historical economic backdrop that led to the current situation. We investigate China’s demographic trends, it’s GDP and respective components, trade and debt. We also compare China’s economic indicators with those of other countries and in particular make parallels with Japan’s economic development from 1970 to 1990 and its subsequent “two lost decades”.

With the broader context at hand, we then examine and anticipate the extent to which the ongoing real estate crisis poses a systemic danger to the economy of China or other countries. The insights gained from the analysis within the report provides us tools to anticipate China’s possible policy actions for dealing with the crisis and on a wider context, its structural reforms for the coming decades.

The report provides a “navigation map” to understand ongoing economic and political developments in China and its geopolitical implications in current trade wars. The “navigation map” will be a useful resource for both the unfolding real-estate crisis as well as China’s economic path in the coming decades.

Included with the package is an executive presentation that is targeted to decision makers at institutions, family offices and high net-worth individuals. It provides them a summary of the main findings contained within the report and their implications to their businesses and assets.

Furthermore, we provide a video where Carlos Alegria and Edward Dowd navigate through the executive presentation and explain the relevance of the different data charts and relationships with there own personal views.

View more information: product page on our website.

Package Contents:

• Full 120-page report on the economy of China.
• Executive presentation
• Video where Ed Dowd and Carlos Alegria go through the executive presentation and provide their personal views.
• 2-hour 1-on-1 video conference with the authors

Preview Video:

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