Palantir - Valuation Review [Lite] (Sep 2025)

A concise, analyst-style 7-slide review built from my GAAP-based DCF and comparable multiples.

Slides included

• Cover (scope/date/sources)
• Thesis: what the business is, why the current pricing looks rich; key figures (EV, EV/Revenue, EV/E, margin set-up)
• Consensus view: revenue table + quick read of Street trajectory (dated)
• Valuation table: core inputs (discount rate, terminal growth, net cash), NPV bridge, equity value/share, implied downside
• Financial outlook: recent & forward multiples (P/E, P/S, P/CF) alongside the revenue path
• Market expectations: what today’s valuation is assuming vs. my read of the data
• Summary: verdict, what would change my view, potential downside catalysts

Key assumptions shown

• GAAP NI for headline EV/E (EV/E included; see note)
• Discount rate built from current base rate + size/quality overlays (I show 5% used; 6% is the more typical setting and would lower value further)
• Terminal (maturity) growth: –1% by policy
• Cash, shares, and model date are disclosed on the slide footers

Result (base case)

• Equity value ≈ $134bn (~$56.7/share) from consolidated GAAP DCF.
• Implied variance vs. market ≈ –64% at the date shown.

Note on metrics

I sometimes show EV/E = EV ÷ GAAP Net Income. That’s non-standard (EV is pre-financing; NI is to equity). I keep it for continuity in my work; for cross-company comps I prioritise EV/Revenue and operating margin structure.

Policy

Educational research only. Not investment advice. 7-day refund if not useful.