Funding Rates Explained — Measured (PDF Guide)

Whenever the market runs, somebody posts a funding chart and says the top is in. Sometimes they are right. You have never seen anyone count how often, against what a random hour would have done, on a sample big enough to mean anything.

This guide writes that claim down in five different shapes, races each one against its own control across 87,778 hourly funding readings joined to 88,000 bars of price, and reports what came back. It also does the thing the posts never do, which is say in advance what would have counted as a finding. This is a 44-page PDF that teaches Funding Rates from the first thing you see on the screen through to a written strategy with an entry, a stop and an explicit rule for when the trade is wrong.

Nothing is taught underneath a chart. Every label sits on the candle, the line or the level it is describing, on real BTC, ETH, SOL and LINK charts. There are three quizzes on real charts, each followed by the same chart re-shown annotated with the reasoning, plus faded practice pages where the first steps are filled in and you finish the rest.

WHAT'S INSIDE

What hot funding predicts - 51.46 per cent on 8,677 cases against a control of 51.92. An edge of -0.46 points and a z of -0.86.

What the extreme predicts - 49.66 per cent on 880 cases, z of -1.34. Narrowing to the top hundredth of hours made the reading smaller, not larger.

What a sustained run predicts - 52.40 per cent on 7,752 cases, z of 0.84, after a full day of positive funding.

How big an edge would have counted - About 1.6 points at these sample sizes. Nothing measured came within a third of that.

What funding is genuinely for - A live reading of which side is crowded, and a cost you can compute before you hold. The contract leaned long 53.10 per cent of hours and the median rate annualises to 0.77 per cent.

WHAT YOU'LL BE ABLE TO DO

State what a funding rate is measuring, and what it is not.

Convert any funding quote to an annual cost in one multiplication.

Say what a hot reading predicts, with the number behind the answer.

Tell a crowded market from a market about to turn.

Judge any funding claim by its control, its sample and its test count.

AN HONEST NOTE

Funding Rates is a clue, not a crystal ball. It describes what price has already done. This guide contains no win rates, no historical-test results and no promises about what you will make, because nobody can verify those and you should not trust anyone who prints them. What it hands you instead is a set of rules you can test yourself on TradingView in an afternoon. Educational, not financial advice.

Instant download. 44 pages, PDF.