Time Tax — PATH012

You already do this. Someone asks how long something will take, and a

number just comes out — an hour, an afternoon, "by Friday." It sounds

considered. It rarely is.

There's a name for the gap between that number and what actually

happens: the planning fallacy. Researchers spotted it decades ago and it

hasn't gone anywhere — not because people are bad at math, but because

we estimate from the inside, imagining this one task instead of asking

what similar tasks actually took last time.

PATH012 is a five-minute fix for that. Put in your honest guess and how

familiar you actually are with this kind of work. It runs the

correction — anchored to the same 1994 study that gave the planning

fallacy its name — and hands back a realistic number, right next to the

one you started with. Then it asks you to actually block that time on

your calendar, not just nod at it.

No account. No tracking. Everything happens in your browser and stays

there. Twenty to thirty minutes, one real question, one number you can

actually use.

Put in your honest time estimate and how familiar you are with the

task.