Stablecoins Explained — Measured (PDF Guide)

Stablecoin supply is quoted constantly as a measure of money waiting to enter crypto. Growing supply is dry powder; shrinking supply is money leaving. Both sound obviously true and neither has ever been counted against a control.

This guide explains what a stablecoin is and what its supply actually measures, tests both halves of the dry-powder claim across 3,203 daily observations going back to 2017, and then does the thing that almost never gets published: attacks its own surviving result three ways until it falls over. This is a 44-page PDF that teaches Stablecoins from the first thing you see on the screen through to a written strategy with an entry, a stop and an explicit rule for when the trade is wrong.

Nothing is taught underneath a chart. Every label sits on the candle, the line or the level it is describing, on real BTC, ETH, SOL and LINK charts. There are three quizzes on real charts, each followed by the same chart re-shown annotated with the reasoning, plus faded practice pages where the first steps are filled in and you finish the rest.

WHAT'S INSIDE

What stablecoin supply actually measures -- Tokens in existence, which is not the same as money waiting to buy anything, and the difference is the whole subject.

The dry-powder claim, tested -- Growing supply raced 52.05 per cent on 317 cases, a z of 0.20. It does not clear the uncorrected bar of 2.

The contraction claim, which DID clear the bar -- 38.36 per cent against a control of 48.51 -- an edge of -10.14 points and a z of -3.62, where 3.023 was the bar.

And the three attacks that took it apart -- It vanishes at other lookbacks, fails in both halves of the period, and 42.14 per cent of its cases fall in 2022 alone.

What significance is and is not -- A result can be pre-registered, corrected and significant, and still be one macro episode wearing a costume. This is the worked example.

WHAT YOU'LL BE ABLE TO DO

Say what a stablecoin is and what its supply counts.

Explain why supply growth is not the same as money entering.

Read a significant result and still ask three more questions of it.

Run a lookback sweep, a split-half and a count-by-year yourself.

Tell a relationship from a single episode.

AN HONEST NOTE

Stablecoins is a clue, not a crystal ball. It describes what price has already done. This guide contains no win-rates, no backtest results and no promises about what you will make, because nobody can verify those and you should not trust anyone who prints them. What it hands you instead is a set of rules you can test yourself on TradingView in an afternoon. Educational, not financial advice.

Instant download. 44 pages, PDF.