EW-COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - JUNE 2026

In This Edition: Commodities Trading into Reversal Territory



Copper and Iron Ore are considered good bellwethers of the economy and these two feature in this month’s report. Both are trading into reversal territory which becomes our theme for this month.

Copper is completing a primary degree A-B-C zig zag upswing that began from the financial-crisis lows of Dec.’08 whilst Iron Ore is mid-correction within a multi-year downswing and set for further declines this year. Should these forecasts be realised, it’ll suggest an economic downturn for the remainder of this year, and perhaps into Q1 2027 too.

This is developing within the backdrop of the continuing conflict in the Middle East – peace overtures from U.S. president Trump have been rejected by Iran because of disagreements over control of the Straits of Hormuz and the release of Iran’s refined Uranium stockpile.

It seems a settlement is unlikely unless one side compromises or relents on its demands. We’ve updated Uranium and an ETF in this report!

Right now, one of the best short-term barometers in predicting an outcome for the Middle East conflict is precious metals – they have a negative-correlation to interest rates and energy and are set for continued declines during the next couple of months or more.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Crude and Brent oil surge higher, as Wall Street analysists are expecting – more likely, they’ll consolidate below March’s highs – that said, this month’s report does offer an alternate count possibility of an upside break-out, albeit a temporary one before a sizable reversal that begins a 12-18month collapse in prices.

We’ve updated the all-important Copper/Crude Oil ratio which provides an invaluable guide to the Middle East situation and the future direction for both of these commodities.

This month’s report also updates Base Metals which themselves are reaching optimum resistance levels, especially Aluminium alongside Copper – we’ve completed cross referencing Iron Ore prices with two of the world’s biggest miners, Vale and Fortescue which suggests some big price declines ahead - Uranium’s latest analysis shows its recent pop higher has now reversed lower - and Rare Earth’s have mixed results depending on REMEX and MP materials although overall medium-term uptrends remain intact.

Precious Metals are still trading lower as January’s corrections in Gold and Silver remain on-track – the Gold/Silver ratio has just completed primary wave B’s correction and now heading higher (widening) as wave C – that means silver underperforming gold, and this is directionally linked to the underlying bullion price which affirms bearish downward forecasts. Gold Miners are engaged in downward corrections too with slightly lower targets this month.

Energy markets are signalling peaks that traded during the last several weeks – Crude/Brent oil show bearish count #1 highs last March completing primary wave X with huge downside risk ahead – that said, the Middle East conflict is itself a binary exogenous development so we’ve added count #2’s alternate bullish pattern where prices break modestly to higher-highs before collapsing lower.