New Residential Sales Analysis. August 2026 update

US Real Estate: New Residential Sales Analysis: August 2026 Update

Report: "Better affordability, demographic risks remain"

Within the report you'll uncover:

-> Leading indicators pointing to further weakness in the housing market.

-> The reasons for underlying the supply/demand imbalance in the housing market.

-> Why building activity is set to decline in the coming months, with impact on employment and economic activity.

-> Under which conditions homes could become affordable again.

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This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Sales. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the situation of new home sales in the US, updated until the latest release on August 25^th, 2026. The collapse in riskier housing projects is like a canary in a coal mine, giving early warning for the possibility of the already fragile housing market becoming weaker in the months ahead.

We show that the growing divergence between new homes for sale and new homes sold. With homes for sale close to record high levels and continued expected declines in new homes sold, we see continued fragility in the housing market in the months ahead.

The report also investigates home affordability, home prices and the relative indebtedness of US households. We show that US households are not overleveraged when compared to the previous 2008-2009 crisis. On the bright side, we also show that the decline in real house prices since 2025 led to substantial improvements in housing affordability.

The report shows that home affordability for prospective home buyers is the main limiting factor, due to the rise in mortgage rates since late 2021 and relatively high house prices relative to historical standards. To understand under which conditions we could have home affordability return, we explore different economic recession scenarios and their likely impact on mortgage rates.

The analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2026 report.

Product Contents: US Real Estate report: New Residential Sales Analysis: August 2026 Update

Title: "Better affordability, demographic risks remain"

Important Disclaimer

Important Notes:

• All purchases are final and non-refundable.
• While this report can be read as a stand alone item, it is complemented by the New Residential Construction report which together provide a view of the overall situation of the US real estate market.
• These reports complement the full report on the US Economy Outlook for 2026 which provides an expanded analysis of the different factors impacting the US Economy.
• This report will be provided with a substantial discount to the purchasers of the full US Economy report.

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