Forecasting revenue accurately is one of the most important — and most challenging — tasks for any SaaS company. Subscription-based business models bring predictable income streams, but they also depend heavily on metrics like churn, customer acquisition, and expansion revenue. A well-structured SaaS revenue forecasting template helps founders, finance teams, and investors make data-driven decisions and plan sustainable growth. SaaS revenue forecasting template
Why Revenue Forecasting Matters in SaaS
Unlike one-time sales businesses, SaaS companies rely on recurring revenue from subscriptions. This means understanding future revenue involves more than just adding up new deals — you must account for renewals, upgrades, downgrades, and cancellations.
Accurate forecasting allows you to:
- Plan hiring and operational expenses confidently
- Set realistic growth targets
- Manage investor expectations
- Identify when to adjust pricing or customer acquisition strategy
Key Metrics for a SaaS Revenue Forecast
Before diving into the template, it’s essential to define the core metrics driving your forecast:
- MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue) – The predictable monthly income from active subscriptions.
- ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) – MRR × 12, often used for investor reporting.
- New MRR – Revenue added from new customers.
- Expansion MRR – Revenue gained from existing customers upgrading or adding seats.
- Churned MRR – Revenue lost from cancellations or downgrades.
- Net New MRR – (New MRR + Expansion MRR) – Churned MRR.
- Customer Churn Rate – The percentage of customers lost in a given period.
- Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) – The average cost to acquire one new customer.
- Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) – The total expected revenue from a customer during their subscription lifespan.
What a SaaS Revenue Forecasting Template Includes
A strong forecasting template breaks your revenue projections down by month and by customer segment. The following structure works well for most SaaS businesses:
Month
Starting MRR
New MRR
Expansion MRR
Churned MRR
Ending MRR
Growth %
Jan
$50,000
$10,000
$2,000
$3,000
$59,000
18%
Feb
$59,000
$12,000
$3,000
$4,000
$70,000
19%
...
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...
...
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You can expand this template to include:
- Number of new customers each month
- Average Revenue Per Account (ARPA)
- CAC payback period
- Cohort analysis to track retention by signup month
How to Build Your Forecast
- Start with Historical Data
- Use at least 6–12 months of MRR and churn data to establish baselines.
- Model Different Growth Scenarios
- Create conservative, moderate, and aggressive projections to see how assumptions impact results.
- Include Seasonality or Market Changes
- Factor in known events like renewals, product launches, or pricing changes.
- Incorporate Expansion Revenue
- Many SaaS businesses grow via upselling existing customers — model this realistically.
- Review and Update Monthly
- Forecasts should evolve with real performance data.
Tools to Use
You can build your forecasting model in:
- Google Sheets or Excel – Flexible and easy to customize
- Financial modeling tools like Causal, Fathom, or LiveFlow for automation
- SaaS analytics platforms such as ChartMogul, Baremetrics, or ProfitWell for real-time data feeds