November and December are the busiest months for many handmade shops. The problem: you pay for materials weeks before customers pay you. A profitable season can still leave you with an empty account in October. A three-month cashflow plan shows the risk before it happens.
The example shop
All numbers below are example data, not a forecast:
- Average order: 25
- Material cost per item: 6
- Platform and payment fees: 10 percent of sales (a placeholder, use your platform's current fees)
- Fixed costs: 150 per month
- Cash at the start of October: 600
- Expected orders: 12 in October, 60 in November, 90 in December
The 150 holiday orders mean about 3,750 in sales and 900 in materials.
Option A: buy all materials in October
- Month: October; Start: 600; Sales in: 300; Materials: 900; Fixed: 150; Fees: 30; End: -180
The shop goes 180 below zero before the busy season even starts. In real life that means a refused payment, an overdraft or making fewer items than you could sell.
Option B: buy in two steps
- Month: October; Start: 600; Sales in: 300; Materials: 450; Fixed: 150; Fees: 30; End: 270
- Month: November; Start: 270; Sales in: 1,500; Materials: 450; Fixed: 150; Fees: 150; End: 1,020
- Month: December; Start: 1,020; Sales in: 2,250; Materials: 0; Fixed: 150; Fees: 225; End: 2,895
Same season, same materials, same profit. The only difference is timing, and the lowest point is now 270 instead of -180.
Three rules from the example
- Plan the lowest point, not the total. The end of December looks great in both options. October decides whether you get there.
- Set a low-cash warning. Pick a minimum, for example one month of fixed costs, and check every month against it.
- Price first, then plan stock. If the price does not cover materials, time and fees, more orders only make the gap bigger. See how to price handmade products.
Planning a craft fair in December too? Check the profit per hour first: craft fair profit per hour.
A ready-made planner
The Handmade Seller Complete Bundle (35 EUR) combines product pricing, inventory with reorder warnings, orders and craft fairs with a 12-month cashflow plan that flags low cash, plus budget vs actual and a tax reserve sheet. Works in Excel, LibreOffice and Google Sheets.
This guide was written with AI assistance. Numbers are example data. Planning help only, not tax, legal or financial advice.