The New Home Sales Conundrum. New Residential Sales Analysis

US Real Estate: New Residential Sales Analysis: July 2025 Update

Report: "The New Home Sales Conundrum"

Within the report you'll uncover:

-> Leading indicators of a forthcoming housing market crisis.

-> The reasons for underlying the supply/demand imbalance in the housing market.

-> Why building activity is set to decline in the coming months, with impact on employment and economic activity.

-> Under which conditions homes could become affordable again.

This report investigates the US Census Bureau release on New Residential Sales. It provides a comprehensive analysis and update of the situation of new home sales in the US, updated until the latest release on June 25^th, 2025. The collapse in riskier housing projects is like a canary in a coal mine, giving early warning for the possibility of the already fragile housing market becoming weaker in the months ahead.

We show that the growing divergence between new homes for sale and new homes sold. With homes for sale close to record high levels and continued expected declines in new homes sold, we see ominous signs of the possibility of a full-blown housing crisis.

The report also investigates home affordability, home prices and the relative indebtedness of US households. We show that US households are not overleveraged when compared to the previous 2008-2009 crisis.

We also show that home affordability for prospective home buyers is the main limiting factor, due to the rise in mortgage rates since late 2021 and relatively high house prices relative to historical standards. To understand under which conditions we could have home affordability return, we explore different economic recession scenarios and their likely impact on mortgage rates. 

The analysis contained in the report is essential for investors, risk managers and real estate professionals as it provides advanced warning for the scenario we portray in our US Economy Outlook for 2025 report.

The report also provides insights into the type of real estate building structures that are most over-extended, and which are likely to be most affected by the crisis. We also provide insights into the sectors that will drive the subsequent recovery.

Package Contents: US Real Estate report: "The New Home Sales Conundrum"

New Residential Sales Analysis: July 2025 Update

Important Disclaimer

Important Notes:

• All purchases are final and non-refundable.
• While this report can be read as a stand alone item, it complements the full report on the US Economy Outlook for 2025 which provides an expanded analysis of the different factors impacting the US Economy.
• This report will be provided with a substantial discount to the purchasers of the full report.

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